Albania and North Macedonia entered the definitive CBAM period with different positions in the regional power market, reflected in their electricity trade with Greece. The contrast at the Greek border highlights a divide between hydropower-based generation and systems with higher fossil intensity. Albania’s and North Macedonia’s outcomes are shown through day-ahead pricing, default emission factors, and scheduled cross-border volumes.
In Q2 2026, Albania averaged €88.6/MWh while Greece averaged €90.2/MWh. The resulting price spread narrowed to €1.6/MWh, down from €10.6/MWh in Q1. Despite the smaller premium, scheduled Albanian exports to Greece stayed around 196 GWh, up by about 3% year on year.
Albania’s zero default factor supports competitiveness
Albania’s key CBAM-related feature is a zero default emission factor. With a hydro-dominated generation mix, the country can remain competitive even when the day-ahead price differential between Albania and Greece is narrow. During periods of strong hydrological conditions, the zero factor provides a structural advantage over power from more carbon-intensive neighbouring systems.
This approach reduces reliance on procedures that would otherwise be needed to support an emissions profile for exported electricity when price spreads are limited. The market outcome is visible in the persistence of scheduled flows to Greece at roughly 196 GWh.
North Macedonia faces near-parity prices and higher CBAM cost
North Macedonia saw a different outcome as its average day-ahead price was €91.6/MWh, close to Greece’s €90.2/MWh. That left virtually no conventional export arbitrage opportunity based on day-ahead spreads. At the same time, North Macedonia’s national default emission factor was 0.887 tCO₂/MWh, implying a CBAM cost of approximately €66.77/MWh.
Scheduled exports from North Macedonia to Greece fell by 78% year on year, while Greek exports towards North Macedonia rose by around 70%. The shift coincided with growing solar and wind generation in Greece, which strengthened Greece’s role as a regional supplier.
Diverging compliance needs and data constraints
The CBAM impact does not apply uniformly across non-EU exporters, according to the different default emission factors used for national calculations. Albania’s zero default emission factor allows it to maintain access to the EU market without relying as heavily on complex actual-value procedures. North Macedonia’s more carbon-intensive generation structure exposes exports to a substantial carbon cost under CBAM.
The exposure can extend to electricity from renewable plants where installation-specific emissions may not yet be demonstrated through actual-value approaches. This creates a differentiated investment environment for cross-border projects linked to Greek and wider EU price benchmarks.
Investment signals depend on verification capacity
The source figures describe how low-carbon systems can retain export revenues, strengthen access to higher-value markets, and attract additional renewable investment. In contrast, carbon-intensive systems can lose export opportunities, receive weaker investment signals, and face greater difficulty financing assets required for decarbonisation. The dynamics are tied to how CBAM costs interact with export volumes at the Greek border.
North Macedonia’s solar contribution may also be understated in regional datasets because part of its output is reported only as forecast generation, while distribution-connected production is largely absent. This data limitation is described as commercially relevant because incomplete documentation can make a power system appear more carbon intensive than its actual production mix.
Different priorities for cross-border contracting and metering
The two countries therefore face different strategic priorities related to CBAM implementation and grid integration needs. Albania is described as needing to convert its zero-factor advantage into bankable cross-border PPAs and stronger transmission integration with Greece and wider EU markets.
North Macedonia is described as needing stronger renewable metering, power-system data reporting, contractual traceability, and access to actual-value verification processes. With scheduled trade patterns already changing across the Greece border—Albanian exports stable near 196 GWh, while North Macedonian exports fell by 78%—the compliance and measurement requirements are presented as directly connected to commercial outcomes.
