Türkiye stayed structurally detached from the SEE electricity price stack in Week 25. Its weekly average fell by 27.1% to €16.66/MWh, compared with €85.50/MWh in Greece, €85.73/MWh in Serbia, €87.58/MWh in Bulgaria, €109.16/MWh in Hungary and €127.69/MWh in Italy. The scale of the difference left Türkiye as an outlier rather than a simply low-priced regional market.
This detachment affects how Türkiye can be used in SEE trading comparisons. It limits its value as a direct price comparator because Türkiye’s market dynamics, supply structure, currency and regulatory setting produce outcomes that do not align with EU-linked Balkan and Central European markets. The gap also raises questions about cross-border value when physical and regulatory conditions allow flows.
A market priced far below neighbouring systems draws attention from traders, industrial buyers and policymakers. The commercial implications extend beyond headline price levels to how participants assess the conditions governing cross-border trading.
Generation profile behind Türkiye’s low weekly price
Türkiye also remained a major generation system during the period. It was the region’s largest hydro producer, with hydro generation broadly stable at around 2.44 TWh, which helped cushion the wider SEE hydro decline. Its thermal generation stayed broadly unchanged, though the mix shifted from gas toward coal.
This generation stability contributed to Türkiye’s very low weekly price relative to other countries in the region. While Türkiye’s pricing did not track regional movements, its generation pattern remained supportive of lower costs through the week.
SEE demand and scarcity signals diverged from Türkiye
The wider SEE market moved differently in Week 25. Demand rose across the region while hydro weakened in several countries and wind declined. Evening scarcity also became more expensive during the same period.
Türkiye did not show the same direction in price terms, reinforcing that SEE operates as partially connected systems rather than a single unified market with one price anchor. The divergence is reflected in the gap between Türkiye’s weekly average and multiple neighbouring benchmarks listed for Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria, Hungary and Italy.
Implications for industry buyers and cross-border trading
For industrial competitiveness, Türkiye’s low electricity price provides an advantage for energy-intensive production at least in the short term. For EU-facing exporters, however, lower electricity cost is not equivalent to low-carbon credibility for supply claims.
CBAM-related buyers are expected to ask about carbon intensity, verification and contractual traceability of electricity supply as part of their purchasing assessments. In parallel, SEE traders view Türkiye’s discount as a signal rather than a straightforward arbitrage opportunity because interconnection limits, market rules and political-regulatory factors affect what can be traded.
The gap is large enough to remain relevant for market participants but complex enough that it cannot be treated as freely tradable surplus across borders. Virtu.Energy
