Regional electricity demand rose 8.2% week on week to 15.15 TWh in Week 23, reaching the highest level recorded in recent weeks. The increase was driven primarily by Türkiye, where consumption climbed 31.0%, adding around 1.53 TWh of additional demand. The scale of the rise was sufficient to dominate the overall Southeast Europe demand picture and offset declines in several other markets.
The demand jump coincided with rising temperatures and stronger cooling load, alongside firmer economic activity. Early June is also when power systems typically move from spring shoulder-season conditions into summer load patterns. In Türkiye, that transition appeared especially pronounced, leading to higher dispatch requirements and a shift in the regional electricity balance.
Thermal generation rises as Türkiye meets higher dispatch needs
Türkiye increased thermal generation sharply, with output more than doubling to 2.03 TWh, up 103.2% week on week. Coal-fired generation rose 55.7%, while gas-fired production increased by 278.1%. The gas surge indicates that flexible thermal capacity was required to cover the sudden demand rise and compensate for weaker wind conditions.
Hydropower also contributed to the supply response. Turkish hydro generation increased 15.4%, or around 356 GWh, reaching 2.66 TWh. Türkiye accounted for the main driver of the regional hydro increase, with total SEE hydro generation rising 10.1% week on week to 3.97 TWh. Without Türkiye’s higher hydro output, the region would have relied more on thermal generation and cross-border imports.
Solar growth offsets weaker wind, variable renewables provide limited cover
Variable renewables provided only partial relief to the demand increase. Türkiye was the only SEE market where total variable renewable output rose, up 1.2%. This was supported by a 61.0% surge in solar generation that offset lower wind output.
The solar increase helped during daylight hours but did not remove the need for evening thermal ramping. Cooling demand and residual load remained high, keeping conventional generation requirements elevated into later hours.
Turkish day-ahead prices rise but remain below regional levels
The price response in Türkiye differed from regional patterns. The weekly average day-ahead price increased from €4.03/MWh to €22.53/MWh, a rise of 459%. Even after that rebound, Türkiye’s price remained far below Greece at €89.25/MWh, Serbia at €99.63/MWh, Bulgaria at €100.83/MWh, Hungary at €103.15/MWh, and Italy at €128.09/MWh.
This price discount aligns with factors including market design and local supply balance, as well as hydro and thermal availability. It also reflects that Türkiye remains only partially integrated with wider European day-ahead price formation logic . For SEE traders, Türkiye’s demand influences flows, fuel needs and regional thermal dispatch, while Turkish prices do not yet behave like a fully converged SEE price node .
Türkiye remains a net exporter as regional thermal output increases
Türkiye stayed a net exporter during the week, though exports fell by 13.6% compared with Week 22. Despite sharply higher demand, available supply supported continued net exports, backed by hydro, solar and a major thermal response.
The broader regional impact remained positive for conventional generation needs. Türkiye’s higher demand contributed to the overall SEE demand increase of 8.2%, while its thermal ramp lifted regional thermal generation by 24.5%% week on week to 4.22 TWh. The shift reinforced the role of fuel prices and carbon-linked marginal costs across the wider region, even as Turkish spot prices stayed unusually low.
Turbine gas burn implications amid TurkStream maintenance context
The Week 23 changes also matter for gas markets because of Türkiye’s power-sector fuel mix shift. A 278.1% increase in gas-fired power generation implies stronger gas burn in the electricity sector during a period when European gas prices were already elevated.
The timing also overlaps with TurkStream maintenance . With Türkiye positioned at the intersection of electricity demand, gas transit and regional supply security, changes in its power generation can carry implications beyond its domestic market .
The Week 23 data show that Türkiye can alter the SEE electricity volume balance without transmitting a comparable price signal . That makes it central to regional aggregates through its demand, hydro and thermal movements while remaining exceptional in terms of price levels relative to neighbouring markets.
