Southeast Europe entered the last week of May with a split between softer Central and Balkan power prices and stronger pricing in Italy and Serbia. Most markets weakened as renewable availability improved balances alongside lower demand, while Italy and Serbia moved higher. The weekly average price range was wide, from €4.03/MWh in Türkiye to €123.58/MWh in Italy. Greece stayed comparatively stable at €86.77/MWh, down 0.7% week-on-week, while Bulgaria fell 11.3%, Romania rose 5.1%, Croatia fell 5.5%, and Hungary eased 3.6%.
Serbia was the main bullish exception, with its weekly average up 30.1% to €105.71/MWh. Türkiye was the extreme outlier, with prices dropping by more than 73% to just €4.03/MWh, according to Electricity.Trade . The report’s daily price chart shows most markets peaking around Tuesday and Wednesday, 27–28 May, while Monday, 25 May, saw the lowest levels in general.
By 3 June, day-ahead prices across SEE were trending upward again, with ranges from €85.72/MWh in Greece to €118.10/MWh in Slovenia. This movement was described as suggesting that the softer Week 22 balance began tightening at the start of the following week.
Weekly demand and renewable output shifts
Regional electricity demand fell by 5.9% week-on-week on paper, from 14.9 TWh to 14.0 TWh, but the headline figure was distorted by Türkiye. Turkish demand dropped 21.7%, equivalent to 1.38 TWh, which exceeded the full regional decline. Excluding Türkiye, SEE demand was broadly stable, with Italy adding 505 GWh (10.8%), Greece rising 3.8%, and Croatia increasing 6.2%. Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary recorded modest demand declines.
Variable renewable generation declined overall from 3.74 TWh to 3.36 TWh, down 10.1%, attributed to underperformance from the wind fleet. Wind output fell by 30.0%, or 532 GWh, with the largest reductions in Italy, Türkiye and Romania. Solar generation increased by 7.8%, or 153 GWh, with gains reported for Bulgaria, Romania and Greece.
Bulgaria’s variable renewable generation rose by 44.0%, almost entirely driven by solar output. Greece increased total variable RES output by 9.3% to 653 GWh, supported by both wind and solar, Electricity.Trade . The resulting structure was described as more solar-led, with deeper midday price pressure alongside less wind support during evening and overnight periods.
Hydro and thermal generation changes
Hydropower generation also declined week-on-week from 3.98 TWh to 3.57 TWh, down 10.2%. The drop was mainly linked to Türkiye, where hydro output fell by 19.2%, or 549 GWh. Outside Türkiye, hydro conditions were more supportive: Italy’s hydro generation rose by 26.5% to 696 GWh, Croatia increased by 75.4%, and Greece climbed by 12.1% to 97 GWh. Bulgaria and Romania recorded moderate hydro declines.
Thermal generation fell regionally from 3.78 TWh to 3.46 TWh, down 8.5%. Coal and lignite output decreased by 10.9%, while gas-fired generation declined by 7.0%. Türkiye drove most of the thermal reduction with thermal output down by 41.4%, equal to 707 GWh, including a 70.6% fall in gas-fired generation.
Bulgaria and Serbia reduced thermal production as well, while Greece and Romania increased thermal generation by 8.5% and 8.4% respectively, largely through gas-fired output. Italy’s thermal output rose strongly by 32.6%, with gas generation up 25.3%, reflecting compensation for weaker wind generation alongside domestic balancing needs despite stronger imports.
Cross-border flows and gas market developments
Cross-border electricity trade increased week-on-week by 8.4% to a total of 1,117 GWh. Greece remained a major net exporter with exports up by 35.7% to 241 GWh, supported by competitive generation and relatively stable domestic pricing; Bulgaria improved exports from 6 GWh to 61 GWh. Türkiye almost tripled net exports to 95 GWh. Italy stayed the region’s dominant net importer as imports rose by 28.3% to more than 1.1 TWh.
Romania and Croatia increased net imports by 27.1% and 36.5%, while Hungary reduced imports by 18.7%. Serbia’s import position was described as broadly stable even as its market price rose, pointing to factors such as local scarcity conditions, interconnection constraints, bidding dynamics or domestic availability rather than a straightforward increase in import dependence.
The report’s flow map indicated congestion around the Hungary–Balkans–Romania–Bulgaria–Greece corridor, with Italy absorbing substantial volumes from neighbouring zones . It also highlighted how interconnection capacity affected SEE price formation through export monetisation in Greece and Bulgaria alongside regional pull created by higher Italian pricing.
: European gas prices softened but remained structurally elevated during the period reviewed for Week 22 . TTF futures averaged €46.56/MWh, down 6.7% week-on-week after peaking at €47.64/MWh on 26 May and closing at €46/MWh on 29 May.
The decline was linked to improved market sentiment, stable LNG inflows, comfortable storage injection and weaker short-term demand; however levels were still high versus normal seasonal conditions . Geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz and global LNG balances continued to support a premium in European gas prices.
LNG flows showed mixed regional dynamics: Greece received 404.07 GWh, a recovery of 15.2%; Italy recorded 4,113.50 GWh, up just 0.55%; Croatia received 633.39 GWh, down 8.9%. The charts indicated Italy remained the largest LNG entry point among the reviewed group.
Countryspecific price moves across SEE
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Countryspecific price moves across SEE (continued)
The weekly average for Greece was €86.77/MWh with a marginal decline of 0.7%. Demand increased by3.8%, while stronger renewables and higher hydro output supported the balance; exports rose to241 GWh,up35.7%.
Italy averaged €123.58/MWh,up6.3%. Demand rose10.8%, wind output weakened,and thermal generation increased32.6%, including gas output up25.3%. Imports exceeded1.1 TWh,but the market still cleared at a premium.
Bulgaria recorded the sharpest decline among EU SEE markets at down11.3% to €93.50/MWh.Solar generation surged,with total variable RES output rising44.0%,and net exports increasing to61 GWh.
Romania fell5.1%to €103.46/MWh despite higher gas-fired generation.Demand declined3.4%, solar rose strongly,while wind and hydro weakened; net imports increased27.1%. Hungary eased3.6%to €105.20/MWh with demand almost flat; hydro was negligible and weaker,and net imports fell18.7%.
Countryspecific price moves: Serbia and Türkiye
Serbia posted a weekly average rise of{30}.1%{}{} to €105. 71/MWh.
Demand slipped 1. 4%, thermal generation was lower,
and imports were broadly stable.
The increase was linked in the report to tighter domestic balancing conditions or constrained access to cheaper regional supply.
Croatia declined 5. 5% to €100. 94/MWh.
Demand rose 6. 2%, hydro generation surged 75. 4%,
but net imports also increased 36. 5%.
Türkiye was the dominant bearish outlier,
with prices collapsing to €4. 03/MWh.
Demand fell 21. 7%, thermal generation dropped 41. 4%,
and exports nearly tripled to 95 GWh.
The Turkish market was described as effectively disconnected from the price logic of the rest of SEE during the week.
