European gas risk returned to the centre of the Southeast European power-market picture in early June, with TTF prices moving toward €50/MWh. The shift coincided with tighter LNG security and sharper geopolitical risk around LNG supply routes. The impact on electricity markets across the region was not uniform, but the direction of risk was linked to gas pricing. Gas-linked marginal pricing remained a potential upside factor for power prices, particularly during evening peaks and periods of low renewable output.
Week 23 TTF levels and forward pricing
During Week 23, TTF gas futures averaged €48.56/MWh, up 4.3% from the previous week. The one-month forward contract traded near €49.335/MWh, equivalent to around $16.72/MMBtu, at the time of publication. Daily TTF values stayed relatively stable through the week, while the overall level remained elevated for early summer. The premium reflected concerns tied to Middle East tensions, LNG availability and storage replenishment.
US-Iran talks, Strait of Hormuz exposure and Qatari export risk
The report pointed to a US-Iran talks stalemate alongside renewed regional fighting as drivers of market concern. It framed the issue as extending beyond direct European gas supply to the broader global LNG system. Around 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, with more than 85% of those volumes normally destined for Asian markets. Any disruption to Qatari LNG exports would likely push Asian buyers to compete more aggressively for alternative cargoes, including Atlantic Basin LNG needed by Europe.
This exposure persists even as Europe’s direct dependence on Qatari LNG has fallen to around 8% of total imports. LNG pricing is global, so if Asian buyers lose access to part of their usual Qatari supply they can bid cargoes away from Europe. Under that scenario, European prices would need to rise to attract sufficient LNG and preserve winter security. The report cited analysis indicating European benchmark gas prices may need to increase by 40–50% from current levels if Qatari export disruptions continue.
Storage levels and limits on US LNG flexibility
European storage was around 38%% full after exiting February near 35%, below the five-year average. Early-summer storage matters because inventories must be rebuilt ahead of winter. If LNG competition intensifies while storage remains relatively low, the market can reprice quickly. Storage weakness therefore adds to sensitivity in the coming months.
The report also described limited US LNG flexibility, with export facilities operating at approximately 94%% utilisation. That leaves little spare capacity to respond immediately to a sudden increase in European or Asian demand. In such conditions, price would be the main balancing mechanism rather than additional immediate supply. Higher TTF prices would be needed to divert cargoes toward Europe.
SEE generation response and pipeline constraints
The implications for SEE were described as direct in Week 23 data, with gas-fired generation rising sharply in Türkiye as gas output increased by 278.1%. Romania recorded higher thermal production supported by stronger gas-fired output. Greece’s total thermal generation increased, though its gas output declined modestly while lignite rose. Italy reduced gas-fired generation during the week but remained structurally exposed to gas-linked price formation.
Pipeline risk was also highlighted through Russian deliveries via TurkStream, which were temporarily suspended due to scheduled maintenance from 2 June to 10 June. TurkStream is described as the only remaining route for Russian pipeline gas deliveries to Europe after the Russia–Ukraine transit agreement expired on 1 January 2025. It supplies Türkiye, Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia, making interruptions closely watched by regional markets even when planned.
LNG flows into Greece, Italy and Croatia during Week 23
LNG flow data showed mixed movements across terminals in the covered countries. In Greece, LNG inflows recovered sharply to 860.32 GWh, up 112.9%% week on week. Italy remained the largest recipient among those countries with inflows of 2,836.03 GWh, down 31.06%% from the previous week. Croatia recorded LNG inflows of 645.30 GWh, up 1.9%%.
Southeast Europe power-market exposure before peak summer load
The report linked these developments to a return of gas into the risk stack ahead of peak summer load conditions. It noted that if heat-driven demand increases while wind generation weakens and hydro support becomes uneven, gas-fired plants can become more important in setting evening prices. With TTF near €50/MWh, gas-fired power was already described as expensive in the market context provided by the report. A further LNG-driven price shock would raise the ceiling for SEE electricity prices, especially in Italy and Greece.
