In the third week of January 2026, TTF gas prices on the ICE market experienced a significant increase, reflecting tightening market conditions. The February futures opened at €30.25/MWh on January 12, marking the week’s lowest price. However, prices rose steadily throughout the week, reaching €31.47/MWh (+4.1%) on January 13 and €31.81/MWh (+1.1%) on January 14. The upward momentum peaked on January 16, with prices hitting €36.88/MWh, an 11.2% increase from the previous day. The weekly average settled at €32.71/MWh, representing a 16.6% rise compared to the prior week.
Several factors contributed to this price surge, including forecasts of colder weather later in January and low European gas storage levels, which were around 50%. Additionally, disruptions in U.S. LNG exports and uncertainties regarding Iranian supply added to market pressures, while stronger demand from Asia due to a cold spell further exacerbated the situation. A brief respite was noted on January 15 when statements from the U.S. president alleviated some concerns over military tensions in the Middle East.
European gas storage levels entering 2026 were notably lower than the previous year, with storage sites approximately 61% full at year-end 2025 compared to 72% at the same time in 2024. While this does not directly indicate market tightness, it heightens sensitivity to immediate conditions. A colder-than-average winter could necessitate higher withdrawals and larger refill volumes later in the year, whereas a milder winter would ease pressure during the summer injection season.
Despite current challenges, market signals suggest a relatively stable outlook bolstered by strong LNG inflows and reduced competition from Asia for spot cargoes. Seasonal spreads remain compressed, indicating limited concern over potential summer supply tightness and manageable refill requirements under normal weather scenarios.
The dynamics of storage at the start of the year indicate a well-balanced yet sensitive market environment. With inventories beginning at lower levels compared to previous years, weather conditions in the first quarter will be crucial in shaping refill demand, influencing price trends, and determining storage utilization for the remainder of 2026.
