In Week 03 of 2026, electricity prices across Southeast Europe (SEE) experienced a significant uptick, with all monitored markets reporting week-on-week increases. The regional average price surged by approximately 29%, with Serbia facing the steepest rise at 65.5%. This spike can be attributed to tight supply conditions and increased reliance on imports. Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary recorded prices within the €170–175/MWh range, indicating strong market coupling and similar pricing dynamics. Greece’s prices climbed nearly 37%, driven by reduced renewable output and elevated marginal costs, predominantly from gas-fired generation. In contrast, Italy’s increase was more modest at 14%, while Türkiye maintained the lowest weekly average at €60.20/MWh, reflecting distinct market fundamentals.
Electricity demand in the SEE region rose moderately by 3.2% week-on-week, exerting upward pressure on prices amid generation constraints. Countries such as Greece, Romania, and Bulgaria experienced double-digit demand increases due to colder weather and heightened heating needs during peak hours. Türkiye saw the largest absolute demand rise of 430 GWh, while Hungary and Serbia exhibited marginal growth rates of 1.14% and 2.34%, respectively. Conversely, Italy faced a demand contraction of 3.3%, with Croatia experiencing a sharp decline of 15.1%, partially offsetting regional gains.
Variable renewable energy generation in SEE dropped significantly by 34.2% week-on-week, falling from 3,871.8 GWh to 2,547.9 GWh. This decline was primarily due to a substantial 45.8% decrease in wind generation, which outweighed a 27.7% increase in solar output. Wind generation fell by nearly 1.5 TWh, while solar added only 0.17 TWh, resulting in a net loss of approximately 1.3 TWh from variable RES sources. Country-specific data indicated that Greece experienced a -46.5% drop in wind generation but benefited from a 56.9% rise in solar output; Romania faced a -20.5% decline dominated by weak wind performance.
Hydropower generation provided a critical buffer against the weak wind conditions during Week 03, increasing significantly from 1.72 TWh to 2.22 TWh. Croatia recorded the highest increase at +485%, while Greece doubled its hydropower output (+106%), adding nearly 96 GWh to its totals. Türkiye contributed an additional 314 GWh (+41.1%), enhancing regional flexibility amidst challenging generation circumstances.
Thermal power generation also saw an uptick across SEE, rising by 16.4% week-on-week to reach a total of 10.68 TWh, primarily driven by higher gas-fired output needed to balance the weak wind generation. Gas generation rose by 22.6% to reach 6.98 TWh, with notable contributions from Italy (+466 GWh), Türkiye (+620 GWh), and Greece (+163 GWh). Lignite and coal generation increased by 6.3% to total 3.69 TWh, led by Türkiye (+90 GWh), Bulgaria (+56 GWh), and Greece (+47 GWh), although slight declines were noted in Italy and Serbia.
Cross-border electricity exchanges grew by 18.2% week-on-week to reach 1.58 TWh, reflecting heightened demand coupled with lower renewable availability, particularly in wind resources. Italy emerged as the largest net importer at 941 GWh, remaining stable compared to the previous week’s figures. Romania exhibited the sharpest relative increase in imports at +175% week-on-week to reach 158 GWh, indicative of a tight domestic supply-demand balance; Serbia also increased imports by +51% week-on-week to total 312 GWh.
As Week 04 commenced, Day-Ahead prices on January 21 ranged from €121.50/MWh in Montenegro to €171.60/MWh in Serbia, highlighting ongoing volatility influenced by demand fluctuations and varying generation capacities across the region.
