On May 22, 2026, day-ahead electricity markets across Southeast Europe experienced a notable rebound, reversing earlier trends driven by solar generation. This shift was primarily influenced by tightening renewable generation balances and a surge in import dependence, leading to higher prices across regional hubs.
The Hungarian power exchange, HUPX, reported a closing price of €116.02/MWh, marking a 9.3% increase from the previous day and positioning Hungary as the highest-priced market in the region. Romania’s OPCOM followed closely at €111.89/MWh, while Croatia’s CROPEX settled at €110.08/MWh. Slovenia’s BSP and Bulgaria’s IBEX recorded prices of €109.28/MWh and €103.82/MWh, respectively. Greece’s HENEX remained lower at €92.38/MWh, attributed to stronger domestic renewable balancing.
The overall increase in prices can be traced back to a significant drop in renewable energy output. Solar generation in Southeast Europe fell by 1,012 MW to 5,302 MW, while wind output decreased by 575 MW to 3,662 MW. The total reduction in renewable capacity exceeded 1.5 GW, which tightened the intraday balance and necessitated increased thermal dispatch along with cross-border imports.
This decline in renewable generation coincided with an uptick in regional electricity consumption, which rose by 559 MW to reach 28,246 MW. Concurrently, net imports surged by 1,570 MW, reaching a total of 1,193 MW. Notably, core imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungarian-SEE corridor increased by 976 MW, underscoring the region’s renewed reliance on north-to-south power flows.
A key indicator of market dynamics was the widening Hungary-Germany price spread, which escalated to €9.67/MWh. This change reflects tightening fundamentals in Central Europe and improved import economics for Southeast Europe. Earlier in the week, this spread had been negative, highlighting the rapid market shifts following declines in solar generation.
The generation mix across Southeast Europe has also undergone significant changes. Gas-fired generation rose by 471 MW, totaling 3,109 MW, indicating that gas plants have resumed their role as marginal balancing assets during peak evening hours. Coal generation remained high at 4,694 MW, while hydroelectric production stabilized at 6,824 MW, insufficient to compensate for losses in renewables. Nuclear output remained steady around 3,076 MW.
The volatility of intraday pricing was evident as evening peaks became increasingly pronounced. Hungary recorded a maximum price of €226.8/MWh, followed by Romania at €207.1/MWh, Croatia at €192.9/MWh, and Greece at €166.4/MWh. Most markets experienced peak prices during hours 21–22 when solar output diminished after sunset while demand persisted at elevated levels.
This growing disparity between midday low prices and evening peaks is bolstering the economic rationale for battery energy storage systems within Southeast European markets. The increasing gap between near-zero solar pricing and scarcity-driven evening peaks enhances opportunities for merchant arbitrage models, particularly in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia where evening balancing volatility remains high.
Serbia’s SEEPEX continues to trade well below neighboring EU markets with an average price of only €68.60/MWh, approximately €47/MWh lower than HUPX. This pricing dynamic reflects Serbia’s insulated market structure and significant reliance on domestic coal generation while highlighting pressures for modernization and integration into broader EU market dynamics.
Cross-border trade patterns indicate a continued export orientation from Romania towards Hungary and Serbia, with Romania exporting about 752 MW towards Hungary. Hungary also exported around 472 MW towards Croatia and approximately 857 MW towards Austria, reinforcing its role as a key transit hub between Central and Southeast Europe.
The forward markets have shown relative stability despite recent spot price increases; Hungarian week-ahead contracts hovered around €96.50/MWh, while June baseload forward prices were approximately €103.50/MWh. EUA carbon allowances saw a modest rise to about €74.93/t, whereas Austrian CEGH gas prices slightly decreased to around €50.88/MWh.
The hydrological conditions remain supportive for regional hydro systems with Danube flow levels reported near 6,757 m³/s, above historical averages aiding hydro output across Romania and the Balkans. However, these contributions are proving inadequate against the backdrop of fluctuating solar and wind patterns during rapid weather transitions.
The regional landscape is evolving toward significant infrastructure transformation as Romania progresses with large-scale renewable investments such as Hidroelectrica’s refurbishment project for the 335 MW Raul Mare Retezat hydropower plant valued at €188.5 million. Additionally, Rezolv Energy is pursuing EBRD support for a new wind project of 315 MW in Constanta county.
Srbjagas has expanded its gasification program in Leskovac with an increased investment value of approximately €86.8 million excluding VAT, emphasizing gas infrastructure’s strategic importance for Serbia’s balancing needs and industrial decarbonization efforts.
Bulgaria’s recent regulatory actions include shutting down one unit at the coal-fired TPP Bobov Dol due to environmental violations, highlighting operational pressures on aging lignite assets throughout Southeast Europe. Such regulatory measures are expected to tighten reserve margins further during periods of renewable underperformance.
The current market structure increasingly mirrors transitional phases observed in Western European power systems characterized by significant midday renewable price compression alongside sharp evening spikes driven by demand fluctuations. As these dynamics unfold across Southeast European markets, they are reshaping investment strategies related to renewables, storage solutions, gas balancing infrastructure, and cross-border trading frameworks.
