Southeast European power markets saw a sharp rise in prices as temperatures increased electricity demand, weaker wind generation reduced supply flexibility, and the evening ramp highlighted constraints in transmission capacity and flexible generation. The HUPX market increased by €17.3/MWh to €151.07/MWh, with movement uneven across the region. Prices reached €161.42/MWh in Slovenia, €157.15/MWh in Croatia and €150.05/MWh in Romania, while Albania stayed significantly lower at €112.50/MWh.
The regional baseload spread widened to €53.41/MWh, measured between Italy at €165.91/MWh and Albania. Hourly price differences moved more than average daily levels, with the evening peak showing higher values than midday. At H20, Slovenia reached €372.60/MWh, Croatia climbed to €340.40/MWh, Romania to €287.80/MWh and Hungary to €275.80/MWh.
Midday prices were much lower, with Greece at €30.50/MWh at H13, Albania at €49.20/MWh, Bulgaria at €51.00/MWh and Hungary at €90.10/MWh. The same delivery day therefore showed two operating conditions, with solar-supported supply during the day and tighter conditions once photovoltaic output declined in the evening.
Baseload premiums and intraday spreads in Hungary and neighbouring markets
Hungary’s baseload premium versus Germany widened by €4.9/MWh to €14.65/MWh, while HUPX traded €14.68/MWh above Greece, €11.68/MWh above Serbia, €24.48/MWh above Montenegro and €38.57/MWh above Albania.
Peak and off-peak patterns differed within Hungary’s pricing structure. Hungary’s peakload price reached €136.50/MWh compared with €109.10/MWh in Germany, producing a peak-period premium of €27.40/MWh. Off-peak prices were close at €165.60/MWh in Hungary and €163.70/MWh in Germany.
HUPX also showed a large intraday range, moving from €90.10/MWh at H13 to €275.80/MWh at H20 for an intraday spread of €185.70/MWh . The western part of the region recorded even stronger hourly volatility, with Slovenia’s hourly spread at €274.70/MWh and Croatia’s at €243.20/MWh.
Italy remained the most expensive baseload market at €165.91/MWh, while its hourly volatility was narrower than several Southeast European markets, ranging from €142.40/MWh to €198.30/MWh . The data pointed to sharper evening increases in parts of the Slovenia-Croatia corridor compared with broader fuel-cost effects.
Demand growth and shifting wind-solar balance
Regional electricity consumption increased by about 1,540 MW or 4.8%, reaching 33,397 MW as warmer weather supported higher cooling demand with regional average temperatures around 25.7°C.
The largest demand increase came from Romania and Bulgaria, where combined consumption rose by 839 MW to 9,690 MW . Greece added 307 MW to reach 7,503 MW, while Slovenia and Croatia together increased demand by 363 MW to 9,804 MW; Hungary remained relatively stable at 4,878 MW.
Forecast solar generation rose by 450 MW to 7,574 MW, while wind output declined by 249 MW to 1,816 MW . Solar improvements supported daytime supply but did not remove the evening flexibility challenge as wind production fell further into the ramp period after solar output declined.
Total regional generation increased by about 1,248 MW to 32,547 MW, slightly below consumption growth . Net imports rose by 292 MW to 850 MW and were more than 50% higher than the previous day as inflows from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia supported balancing.
Import flows shaping national balances across Southeast Europe
The overall daily balance indicated adequate supply in energy terms despite severe hourly price spikes . The key issue was described as timing and location of flexible capacity rather than total electricity availability.
Hungary’s electricity balance weakened while demand stayed stable: consumption increased slightly to 4,878 MW as domestic generation fell by 320 MW to 3,692 MW . Net imports rose from 824 MW to 1,185 MW as scheduled inflows averaged about 1,073 MW from Slovakia, 796 MW from Romania, 256 MW from Serbia and 136 MW from Austria.
At the same time Hungary supplied around 646 MW to Croatia and 466 MW to Slovenia . Croatia remained the largest net importer at 1,222 MW with consumption up to 2,537 MW while domestic generation reached only 1,315 MW; average scheduled imports included about 646 MW from Hungary plus flows of roughly 426 MW from Slovenia.
Slovenia recorded net imports of 329 MW relying heavily on cross-border flows from Austria and Hungary while supplying electricity toward Croatia and Italy . These transit requirements coincided with high hourly prices even without an extreme national supply deficit.
Bulgaria exports more; Greece gateway role; Serbia peak shifts
Bulgaria stayed the largest net exporter at 1,372 MW as consumption rose by 678 MW to 3,862 MW while generation increased by 652 MW to 5,234 MW . Bulgaria supplied about 1,307 MW to Romania plus around 289 MW to Serbia and 181 MW to North Macedonia while receiving electricity from Greece and Turkey.
Greece increased its export position from 568 MW to 769 MW as generation growth outpaced demand growth . Electricity was exported toward Bulgaria, Albania, North Macedonia and Italy as the Greek market showed a solar-driven price curve falling to €30.50/MWh at H13 before rising to €196.70/MWh at H22.
Romania continued exports toward Hungary but shifted into net imports as domestic demand increased and generation declined . Strong imports from Bulgaria helped balance the system during the day described in the data.
Serbia convergence; Montenegro and North Macedonia tighter; Albania exception
Serbia recorded the largest daily baseload price increase among monitored markets on SEEPEX rising by €31.2/MWh to €139.39/MWh . Consumption increased to 3,620 MW while generation rose more strongly to 3,352 MW which reduced net imports from 489 MW to 269 MW.
Serbia adjusted regional flows by increasing exports toward Hungary during peak hours while continuing imports from Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Romania . SEEPEX moved from €80.50/MWh at H13 to €215.00/MWh at H22 for a later peak that aligned with a southward movement of evening scarcity conditions across the region.
Montenegro’s BELEN price rose by €22.6/MWh to €126.59/MWh as domestic generation fell and import dependence increased . Consumption reached 442 MW against generation of 291 MW expanding net imports; prices ranged from €80.00/MWh at H12 to €200.00/MWh at H22 despite ongoing transit flows toward Italy.
North Macedonia moved from a small export position into net imports as demand increased and generation declined . Its market price rose to €125.72/MWh remaining below Hungary; Albania remained an exception with stable generation slightly above consumption supporting a small export position alongside modest price increases following a strong solar-shaped curve.
Gas and carbon higher; forward power pricing lags spot volatility
Thermal market conditions became slightly more supportive with gas prices increasing: CEGH gas rose to €54.44/MWh while EU carbon allowances climbed to €81.39/t. Coal prices softened slightly leaving gas and carbon as main marginal cost drivers .
Forward electricity markets did not fully reflect day-ahead volatility since Hungarian Week 30 and Week 31 contracts stayed below current spot levels . Longer-term Hungarian contracts continued strengthening amid structural concerns related to import dependence, thermal availability and transmission constraints .
