Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe moved closer together during the second quarter of 2026. The shift coincided with lower EU wholesale benchmarks, without indicating a full restoration of cross-border market integration.
Q2 price levels across Italy, Hungary and the Western Balkans
Italy’s average day-ahead price declined from €130.3/MWh in Q1 to €120.9/MWh in Q2. Hungary fell from €127.5/MWh to €109.2/MWh. Romania dropped to €109.4/MWh, Croatia to €103.3/MWh, and Bulgaria to €96.8/MWh.
Western Balkan prices changed less than the higher-priced markets to the north and west. Serbia averaged €96.3/MWh, Montenegro €93.6/MWh, North Macedonia €91.6/MWh, Kosovo €89.0/MWh, and Albania €88.6/MWh. Greece remained aligned with the lower-priced Balkan markets at €90.2/MWh.
Narrower spreads on key borders in the second quarter
The adjustment reduced several cross-border price differentials between Q1 and Q2. The average Montenegro–Italy differential fell to around €27.2/MWh, from approximately €44/MWh in Q1. Hungary stayed about €12.9/MWh above Serbia.
Serbia and Bulgaria moved close to parity, with a difference of just €0.5/MWh. Albania and Greece were separated by only €1.6/MWh, while North Macedonia remained slightly more expensive than Greece.
Drivers behind the apparent convergence and regional price stability
The Q2 pattern reflected changes in EU benchmark levels rather than uniform movement across all markets. EU benchmarks declined alongside softer seasonal demand, lower gas-linked marginal costs, and stronger spring solar and wind generation. Western Balkan prices were comparatively stable and increased in several markets.
Montenegro recorded an increase of around €7.8/MWh, while Albania rose by €4.7/MWh. Serbia and Kosovo increased by approximately €1.6/MWh, with only North Macedonia showing a material decline during the quarter.
Correlation shifts linked to hydro balance and import exposure
Price correlation with Hungary improved during Q2 after earlier conditions eased. Serbia reached approximately 0.91 by the end of June, while Montenegro climbed to around 0.82. North Macedonia recovered to roughly 0.77.
Albania and Kosovo remained lower and more volatile at around 0.70. The recovery followed depletion of an exceptional hydro surplus that had temporarily pushed the Western Balkans into a net-export position, after which the region returned to importing electricity and local prices became more exposed to EU benchmarks.
First-half comparison shows wider year-on-year divergence
The first-half picture was less aligned across the region than Q2 alone suggested. During H1 2026, Italy averaged €125.5/MWh, Hungary €118.3/MWh, and Romania €113.6/MWh. Albania averaged €86.3/MWh, Kosovo €88.2/MWh, and Montenegro €89.7/MWh.
In H1 2025, prices across the Western Balkans and neighbouring EU markets had been broadly aligned, but year-on-year divergence widened in 2026 even though Q2 appeared significantly more convergent than Q1.
