The second quarter of 2026 saw a partial easing of the disruption that began with the definitive phase of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), while the Western Balkans did not revert to its prior electricity trading structure. Price spreads narrowed and correlations with EU benchmarks recovered. The region returned to its usual seasonal positioning as a net importer. Commercial electricity trade with the EU stayed well below 2025 levels, and flows increasingly concentrated on fewer northern and southeastern European corridors.
The Energy Community Secretariat’s Q2 assessment covers Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, alongside neighbouring markets in Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Italy and Romania. It reviews electricity generation, day-ahead prices, cross-border price spreads, transmission capacity auction values, power exchange liquidity, and scheduled and physical electricity flows. The Secretariat notes the evidence remains preliminary because CBAM started during exceptionally favourable hydrological conditions. This timing makes it difficult to separate carbon-related effects from seasonal market factors.
Regional balance moves from net exports to net imports
The main change in Q2 was a shift from an exceptional net export position of around 1,247 GWh in Q1 to net imports of approximately 1,048 GWh. The resulting level was close to the normal seasonal balance recorded a year earlier. Imports from the EU fell 14% year on year to 4,271 GWh, while exports declined 16% to 3,223 GWh. Gross scheduled electricity trade across Western Balkan–EU borders dropped from 8,828 GWh to 7,494 GWh, about a 15% decrease.
For the first half of 2026, the contraction in gross scheduled cross-border trade reached 19%. The decline occurred even though transmission capacity offered on the main export corridors was almost fully allocated. Capacity purchases continued, but scheduled volumes moved lower across that allocated capacity. This points to uncertainty around carbon costs, eligibility of actual emissions values, power purchase agreement structures and future regulatory changes rather than a lack of physical transmission rights.
Domestic exchanges gain liquidity as cross-border volumes fall
Alongside weaker commercial transfers across EU borders, domestic trading activity improved. Day-ahead traded volumes across four Western Balkan power exchanges increased 19% to 2.70 TWh. ALPEX recorded a 52% increase, MEPX rose 49%, MEMO grew 31%, and SEEPEX increased 7%. Regional market activity therefore remained present but shifted inward toward domestic exchanges.
The inward shift meant more electricity being traded domestically while less was transferred commercially across the EU border. The geographical pattern also changed during Q2. Scheduled exports from Serbia to Hungary rose 111%. Electricity movements within the Western Balkans increasingly ran northwards through Serbia.
Route changes include Serbia-Hungary and Greece-Balkan exports
Greece became a stronger exporter to Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Albania during Q2. The increase was supported by growing solar and wind generation in Greece. Montenegro’s exports to Italy recovered over the period. At the same time, several established transit corridors through North Macedonia, Bulgaria and Croatia remained weak.
The Secretariat’s assessment states that CBAM did not explain all developments on its own but is increasingly part of route economics affecting which corridors remain commercially viable. National default emission factors create a cost disadvantage for carbon-intensive power systems. Albania’s zero factor supports competitiveness at narrower price spreads.
Carbon verification and contract structures influence corridor economics
The assessment describes traders as increasingly evaluating more than day-ahead price differentials when deciding on cross-border activity. It highlights carbon certificate exposure alongside hourly delivery structures and physical power purchase agreement traceability. It also points to expectations around regulatory changes affecting those decisions.
The first half of 2026 is described as marking the beginning of a more segmented regional electricity market structure. Domestic power exchanges are becoming more liquid while cross-border integration with the EU weakens. Serbia is gaining importance as a northern trading and transit hub. Greece is strengthening its position as a regional supply centre as renewable producers assess how access to EU prices depends on verification and contractual structures as well as physical generation.
