Day-ahead power prices in Southeast Europe rose for Monday delivery, with markets in Hungary and the northern Balkans moving toward EUR 180/MWh. The increase followed recovering electricity demand from the weekend and weaker wind generation tightening the regional supply-demand balance. Prices were highest in Hungary’s HUPX market at EUR 183.86/MWh.
Regional price levels across SEE markets
Slovenia cleared at EUR 181.48/MWh, Austria at EUR 181.46/MWh, Croatia at EUR 180.63/MWh and Italy at EUR 179.30/MWh. Romania reached EUR 172.58/MWh, while Bulgaria cleared at EUR 169.90/MWh. Further south, Greece settled at EUR 153.42/MWh, Albania at EUR 144.33/MWh, North Macedonia at EUR 151.23/MWh and Montenegro at EUR 168.22/MWh.
Serbia remained the regional low at EUR 128.19/MWh. The broad rally also showed large day-on-day increases across multiple markets, including Greece up EUR 48.4/MWh, North Macedonia up EUR 48.3/MWh and Serbia up EUR 46.0/MWh. Hungary, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Croatia recorded gains ranging from EUR 42.9/MWh to EUR 45.9/MWh.
Demand, renewables and system balance shift
The price surge coincided with a tighter physical balance after Sunday’s lower-load session. Combined electricity consumption across Hungary and southeast Europe increased to 30,974 MW, up by 4,206 MW versus the previous day. At the same time, the region moved from a small net export position of 240 MW on Sunday to net imports of 1,107 MW for Monday delivery.
Imports from the core European market through Austria and Slovakia rose to 1,405 MW, about 402 MW higher than a day earlier. Renewable availability was mixed: wind generation fell sharply to 2,210 MW from 3,227 MW, while hydro output declined to 4,082 MW from 4,355 MW. Solar generation increased by around 515 MW to 6,830 MW, but additional photovoltaic output did not offset stronger demand alongside lower wind and hydro production.
Thermal generation increased as well, with coal-fired output rising to 6,154 MW. Gas-fired generation increased to 4,391 MW, indicating greater reliance on thermal sources during the tighter balance period.
Hungary’s HUPX curve and hour-by-hour pricing
The tightening showed up in Hungary’s day-ahead price curve on HUPX . The HUPX base price rose to EUR 183.9/MWh from EUR 137.9/MWh on Sunday, while the peak contract increased to EUR 181.4/MWh from EUR 101.6/MWh. Minimum hourly pricing climbed to EUR 142.3/MWh, compared with EUR 27.3/MWh a day earlier.
The maximum hourly price increased to EUR 226.1/MWh, up from EUR 206.5/MWh on Sunday . The resulting structure indicated broader upward repricing across the delivery day rather than a pattern limited to a single scarcity period.
Northern SEE coupling and wider spreads toward the south
Northern SEE markets remained closely aligned with Hungary’s pricing cluster . Slovenia cleared at EUR 181.5/MWh, Croatia at EUR 180.6/MWh and Austria at EUR 181.5/MWh, while minimum prices across those markets were clustered around EUR 140-142/MWh.
The spreads were narrower within the north but wider toward southern Balkans markets . Hungary traded around EUR 11/MWh above Romania, EUR 14/MWh above Bulgaria, EUR 30/MWh above Greece and almost EUR 56/MWh above Serbia.
Serbia discount and Greece’s structurally lower level
Despite its strong day-on-day increase, Serbia maintained the largest regional price discount . SEEPEX settled at EUR 128.2/MWh, with a peak average of EUR 120.6/MWh, a minimum hourly price of EUR 62/MWh and a maximum of EUR 240/MWh.
The Serbia-Hungary spread continued to point to congestion and limited northbound transfer capability rather than a fully integrated response across the region . Greece also remained structurally cheaper than northern markets: HENEX averaged EUR 153.4/MWh, with a minimum hourly price of only EUR 28.4/MWh, while its off-peak average was EUR 183.1/MWh.
Cross-border flows and fuel-market references
The cross-border flow picture reflected the changing regional price structure . Exports toward Italy fell sharply to 281 MW from 1,364 MW on Sunday as the HU+SEE region shifted to net imports of 1,107 MW. Core imports from Austria and Slovakia increased to 1,405 MW.
The decline in exports toward Italy coincided with convergence between Italian and northern SEE prices . Italy’s national day-ahead price settled at EUR 179.3/MWh, about EUR 4.6/MWh below Hungary, while the Italian peak price stood at around EUR 169.7/MWh.
Nearing-term fuel markets were comparatively stable with limited linkage to the size of the spot-market move . CEGH gas was quoted at EUR 62.18/MWh, while EUA carbon allowances were around EUR 81.79/t.
Forward curve premium on HUPX contracts
The Hungarian power forward curve showed levels that differed from the elevated day-ahead settlement . Week 34 power was assessed at EUR 156.50/MWh, Week 35 at EUR 160.50/MWh and September at EUR 161.50/MWh; Calendar year 2026 cleared at EUR 126.50/MWh. The HUPX day-ahead settlement therefore stood more than EUR 22/MWh above September.
The premium appeared concentrated in short-term physical trading rather than being fully reflected further along the forward curve . The regional market continued to be sensitive to wind availability and weekday demand as Monday combined a consumption increase of 4.2 GW with a wind generation drop of more than 1 GW, alongside weaker hydro output.
Northern cluster versus southern Balkan pricing outlook for next sessions
The next delivery sessions are expected to feature a widening divide between a northern cluster around Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia and Austria near EUR 180/MWh, and substantially cheaper markets in Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia and Greece . With HUPX’s daily minimum already above EUR 140/MWh, prices indicated broad scarcity across the load curve rather than only an evening-peak pattern .
