Serbia’s recently approved Energy Balance for 2026 outlines a stable trajectory for the country’s electricity sector, projecting a total gross electricity generation of 39,299 GWh. This figure represents a 5% increase from the previous year, with thermal power plants expected to continue their dominance by contributing over 62% of the total production.
Hydropower is anticipated to be the second-largest contributor, generating approximately 9,833 GWh, which accounts for about a quarter of the overall electricity output. Wind energy is expected to provide just over 5%, while other renewable sources will contribute a smaller fraction to the energy mix.
In terms of installed generation capacity, Serbia has a total of 10,198.3 MW. This includes 4,322 MW from thermal sources, 3,014 MW from hydropower, and 1,004 MW from wind energy, alongside around 486 MW from combined heat and power facilities. Despite these capacities, electricity consumption is projected to grow at a slightly faster rate than production, with an expected increase of 6% in total demand compared to 2025. Households will remain the largest consumers, accounting for 44.5% of final electricity usage, while industry and construction together represent roughly one-third of consumption.
On the trade front, Serbia plans to import 6,931 GWh in 2026, marking a reduction of approximately 14% compared to the previous year. Exports are forecasted at 7,410 GWh, reflecting a modest increase of 2%. Transmission and distribution losses are estimated at 3,796 GWh, resulting in final electricity consumption reaching approximately 29,972 GWh—about 1% higher than in 2025.
The demand structure indicates that households lead in consumption, followed by commercial and public services at 19%. Transport and agriculture each contribute just over 1%. Analysts have noted that Serbia’s industrial consumption appears lower than expected due to the categorization of industrial and construction sectors separately from commercial services. Together, these sectors account for nearly 53% of total consumption but remain below Western European levels where industrial use typically constitutes around 70% of electricity demand. This discrepancy underscores the relatively smaller role of heavy industry within Serbia’s energy landscape.
