On 1 September, Southeast European day-ahead power prices moved back toward a tighter regional range, with the shift led by a sharp rebound in Serbia. The change came as stronger consumption increased import requirements across the region despite higher renewable and thermal generation. Serbian SEEPEX baseload rose by €34.04/MWh day on day to €166.25/MWh.
That move cut the Serbia discount to Hungarian HUPX to €10.49/MWh. In the prior session, Serbia traded more than €41/MWh below Hungary, making the latest correction the largest among the main SEE markets monitored. Hungary settled at €176.74/MWh, up €3.33/MWh, while Romania finished at €177.28/MWh.
Bulgaria and Greece were closely aligned at €174.59/MWh and €174.68/MWh, respectively. Together, the eastern markets formed a relatively compact €174-177/MWh cluster as Serbia moved significantly closer to that band. Further west and south, discounts remained larger across several monitored borders.
Price levels across monitored SEE day-ahead markets
Croatia eased to €170.05/MWh and Slovenia to €168.53/MWh on the day-ahead curve. Montenegro dropped to €158.50/MWh, while North Macedonia remained the lowest-priced monitored market at €148.46/MWh. The gap between Hungary and North Macedonia widened to more than €28/MWh.
Montenegro traded around €18/MWh below HUPX, supporting northbound trading economics where cross-border capacity was available. The price dispersion therefore persisted outside the eastern cluster even after Serbia’s correction.
Demand and generation changes behind the regional balance
The main bullish signal in the session was demand, with regional electricity consumption increasing by around 2.4 GW day on day to 33.27 GW. Total imports rose by approximately 614 MW to 2.87 GW, while imports from the Central European core increased by around 708 MW to 3.58 GW. Higher imports were required even as total regional generation increased by roughly 1.1 GW to 28.61 GW.
Renewables output rose alongside thermal generation, with solar climbing almost 1 GW to 5.86 GW and hydro increasing by 309 MW to 4.80 GW. Gas-fired generation rose to 4.49 GW, coal output reached 6.33 GW, and nuclear generation increased to 4.37 GW; wind production slipped slightly to around 1.10 GW.
The figures indicated that the demand increase absorbed most of the additional domestic generation, tightening the regional balance and raising reliance on imports for supply coverage during the session.
East-west spreads and forward market moves
The Hungary-Germany spread narrowed sharply to around €32.94/MWh from more than €61/MWh in the previous session after German prices climbed to €143.80/MWh. The contraction reduced extreme east-west divergence seen at the end of August, although Hungary still carried a sizeable premium over Germany.
Forward prices also strengthened, with Hungarian Week 37 rising to €175.50/MWh and Week 38 reaching €179.50/MWh; October increased to €181/MWh. Austrian CEGH gas was around €69/MWh and EUA carbon near €83/t, supporting elevated thermal generation costs during pricing.
Regional reconvergence focus for traders
The latest session reflected regional reconvergence rather than a uniform SEE rally across all price zones monitored in the day-ahead market set. Serbia’s sharp correction removed much of the exceptional discount seen on 31 August, bringing SEEPEX closer to Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece.
Montenegro and North Macedonia remained principal discounted markets, leaving meaningful cross-border optionality where capacity can be secured: . Near-term upside risk was concentrated in evening hours and low-renewable periods as regional load stayed above 33 GW.
With import requirements rising and gas-linked marginal costs elevated, a reduction in solar output or available cross-border capacity could quickly push the central SEE cluster back above €180/MWh during subsequent sessions.
For traders, attention shifted from outright regional price direction toward border availability and hourly spread capture, particularly across corridors linking Serbia with Hungary and Romania as well as southern Balkan routes.
