It is well-known that Serbia needs to import oil and gas, but available data also indicate that the supply of consumers in our country increasingly depends on electricity purchased abroad. According to the Energy Balance for the current year, the import of 5.5 million tons of coal is projected, which is 10 percent more than the estimated import in 2023.
Otherwise, the estimated coal import last year was 4.8 million tons, which is 70 percent more than the import in 2022 (2.8 million tons).
It is estimated that gross electricity production this year will be 40,585 gigawatt-hours. This is one percentage point higher than the estimated production in the previous year.
It is planned that the majority of electricity will be produced in thermal power plants, with 25,894 GWh or 64%, while hydroelectric power plants will provide 10,504 GWh or 25.9%. Wind farms will contribute 1,309 GWh, and solar power with 129 GWh, of which 15 GWh comes from customer-producers.
However, the total electricity produced in Serbia will not be sufficient for domestic needs, so the plan is to import electrical energy amounting to 6,401 GWh, which is 19% more compared to the estimated import in 2023.
As for exports, including transit, it is planned to reach 8,050 GWh in 2024, which is a ten percent increase compared to 2023.
Transmission and distribution losses in 2024 are estimated at 4,008 GWh, which is a two percent increase compared to the previous year.
Energy experts emphasize that the Energy Balance predicts the import of significant quantities of electricity and coal, which is an alarming sign that domestic production is becoming less capable of meeting consumer needs.
Analyzing the data from the Energy Balance for 2024, it is clear that compared to 2022, coal imports will increase by 85 percent in the current year. Experts believe this is an indicator that something is wrong with domestic production.
The reason for this is insufficient coal quantities in our mines, and it is indicated that the exploration is being done in the wrong places. Consequently, a higher level of import is necessary.
It is evident that the predicted import of electricity for this year is extremely high, and the amount of electricity imported in the upcoming winter season will depend on whether it will be mild like the current one or the previous one or not. Otherwise, electricity produced in Serbia is twice as cheap as the imported one.
Energy expert Miodrag Kapor told Danas that the increasing import of coal, which produces the largest quantities of electricity from domestic production, and electricity to Serbia is something that should not be considered a surprise.
Knowing that there is less and less quality coal in Serbia for electricity production and that the blocks in thermal power plants are mostly outdated, it is entirely expected that neither enough coal nor enough electricity is obtained from domestic resources. Also, losses on the distribution network are not decreasing. When all of this is considered, a logical conclusion arises as to why the import of coal and electricity is increasing – explains our interlocutor.
According to him, Serbia is becoming more dependent on electricity imports, and to slow down this process, it is necessary to develop renewable energy sources and increase energy efficiency.
The Energy Balance predicts an increase in production from renewable energy sources when it comes to solar and wind energy. The estimated use of solar energy is 129 GWh, which is 207% more than expected in 2023.
In the case of biogas, the growth of usage is estimated at 41%, while the planned use of wind energy in 2024 is 1,309 GWh, which is 28% more than last year. The only area where the same production as in 2023 is planned is geothermal energy.
Data from the Energy Balance, among other things, show that gas imports are expected to increase by six percent this year.
Vojislav Vuletić, the Secretary-General of the Association for Gas in Serbia, told Danas that the import of “blue energy” is increasing because an increasing number of consumers are connecting to the distribution network.
The public enterprise “Srbijagas” provides favourable conditions for introducing gas to households and small businesses. Because of this, there is an increasing number of interested parties for gas connection, making it necessary to increase its import. This is an excellent development, especially in terms of environmental protection, as those who use coal as an energy source now have the opportunity to replace it with and use gas, concludes our interlocutor.
