Serbia stayed a net electricity importer in 2025, with the value of imported power rising by 30.3% year-on-year. Exports increased by 19.6% over the same period. The gap between import and export growth indicates a tightening domestic balance.
Electricity’s share in trade and cross-border flows
Electricity represented 2% of Serbia’s total merchandise imports, up from 1.7% in 2024. On the export side, electricity’s share climbed from 2.2% to 2.5%. This points to expanded trading activity in both directions even as the net position weakened.
In imports, Bosnia and Herzegovina was Serbia’s largest source, with purchases valued at €206.7 million. Croatia followed at €144.9 million, while imports from Romania reached €134 million. On exports, Romania was the main destination, buying Serbian power worth €315.5 million.
North Macedonia imported electricity worth €124.7 million from Serbia. The parallel presence of sizable import and export values reflects an increasingly traded character of Serbia’s electricity balance. Electricity can be brought in during outages, low-hydrology periods, or high-demand hours, while exports may occur when domestic generation exceeds consumption or when regional spreads support trading.
Shift from net exporting and timing effects on costs
The data also indicate a structural change from Serbia’s historic role as a regular net exporter. Ageing lignite units, variable hydropower output, rising consumption, and periods of weak availability across the EPS generation fleet have increased reliance on external supply.
Annual trade values do not capture the full physical balance because costs depend on when electricity is bought and sold. Imports concentrated in high-priced winter or evening periods can produce a financial deficit even if annual import and export volumes are relatively close. Exports during lower-priced renewable-rich hours may also generate less revenue per megawatt-hour.
Implications for renewables integration and system balancing
This timing risk is expected to become more significant as Serbia adds solar and wind capacity. New renewable generation can improve the annual energy balance, but without storage and flexible generation it may not remove imports during peak hours.
The extent to which renewable output can replace higher-cost purchases will depend on grid reinforcement, pumped storage, batteries, and stronger regional interconnections. The 30.3% rise in electricity imports is therefore reflected as a balance-sheet signal for EPS alongside the economic value of improving domestic plant availability, hydropower flexibility, and system balancing.
