On April 14, day-ahead electricity prices across South East Europe (SEE) experienced a significant increase, driven by a rebound in demand coupled with a decline in solar generation. This surge reflects the ongoing volatility within the region’s power markets, highlighting the intricate balance between supply and demand dynamics.
Leading the upward trend, Hungary’s HUPX market recorded a price of €144.19/MWh, marking an increase of €46.2/MWh from the previous day and establishing it as the highest price in the region. Neighboring countries followed suit, with Slovenia’s BSP clearing at €142.07/MWh, Croatia’s CROPEX at €141.76/MWh, and Romania’s OPCOM at €139.77/MWh. Bulgaria’s IBEX and Greece’s HENEX both settled at €132.81/MWh, indicating strong bullish momentum across Central and Eastern Europe.
In contrast, Western Balkan markets showed comparatively weaker performance. Serbia’s SEEPEX recorded a price of €97.85/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN reached €118.87/MWh, and North Macedonia’s MEMO settled at €111.98/MWh. Albania’s ALPEX had the lowest price in the region at €78.61/MWh. This divergence underscores ongoing structural imbalances and varying levels of hydropower availability and import dependence among these markets.
The surge in prices was primarily fueled by a notable increase in electricity consumption, which rose to 30,365 MW, an increase of 3,287 MW compared to the prior day. Concurrently, solar output diminished to 3,779 MW, down by 788 MW, exacerbating supply tightness during peak hours. Although wind generation increased to 1,980 MW, it was insufficient to alleviate the upward pressure on prices.
To stabilize the power system amidst fluctuating renewable output, both hydropower and thermal generation played crucial roles. Hydropower output reached 7,001 MW, while coal generation contributed 4,200 MW, gas provided 3,112 MW, and nuclear energy accounted for 5,841 MW. Total generation amounted to 27,574 MW, reflecting a reliance on conventional energy sources as renewables fluctuated.
Cross-border electricity flows also significantly impacted market dynamics. Net imports into the SEE-Hungary region surged to 333 MW, an increase of 829 MW from the previous day, while core imports into the Hungarian-Slovenian area rose to 1,770 MW. The widening spread between Hungary and Germany of €6.11/MWh further incentivized imports and reinforced Hungary’s role as a regional price setter.
The influence of Western European benchmarks added further support to the regional markets. German day-ahead prices were reported at €138.09/MWh, Austrian prices at €141.49/MWh, and Italian prices at €150.62/MWh. These figures closely aligned with Central European markets, limiting potential arbitrage opportunities.
The fuel and carbon markets also exhibited supportive trends; the CEGH gas benchmark climbed to €49.28/MWh, while EU carbon allowances (EUA) traded at €72.59/t. These developments maintained upward pressure on thermal generation costs and reinforced bullish sentiment within power markets.
The intraday price patterns revealed pronounced evening peaks across regional exchanges due to tighter supply during ramping hours as solar production waned. Hungary saw intraday highs surpassing €240/MWh, with similar spikes noted in Romania and Slovenia, illustrating persistent volatility across interconnected SEE markets.
Looking ahead, forecasts suggest moderately rising temperatures across the region that are expected to sustain demand without significantly altering market fundamentals. The direction of prices will continue to be closely linked to renewable output levels, cross-border electricity flows, and developments in fuel markets.
This latest trading session highlights the sensitivity of SEE power markets to fluctuations in renewable generation and demand patterns, with Hungary maintaining its position as a primary price driver and liquidity hub for the broader region.
