On April 3, electricity prices across South-East Europe (SEE) and Hungary experienced a notable decline, revealing ongoing disparities within the regional market. While core hubs like Hungary saw significant reductions in prices, southeastern markets maintained a premium, reflecting a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics.
The HUPX front in Hungary settled at €108.30/MWh, marking a steep decrease of €27.5/MWh from the previous day, one of the largest single-day drops in recent times. This trend was mirrored in Slovenia and Croatia, where prices fell to €104.99/MWh and €108.90/MWh, respectively, both posting declines exceeding €25/MWh.
In contrast, the eastern segment of the market remained robust, with Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece all clearing at €129.62/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX recorded a price of €122.72/MWh, sustaining a premium of €14–21/MWh over Hungary. Montenegro and North Macedonia also held steady above the HUPX benchmark at €116.23/MWh and €116.17/MWh, respectively.
This divergence indicates that the regional market is not functioning as a cohesive unit but rather is fragmented by transmission constraints and varying levels of import dependency. The recent price corrections were primarily driven by improved wind generation rather than a collapse in demand; regional consumption decreased to 34,217 MW, down 1,341 MW, influenced by milder weather conditions.
Total generation fell slightly to 33,354 MW, with significant shifts in the energy mix. Gas-fired generation dropped sharply to 4,211 MW, down by 1,040 MW, while wind generation surged to 5,018 MW, an increase of 522 MW. Hydro output also rose to 8,398 MW, contributing to reduced pricing pressure for marginal costs. Conversely, solar generation decreased to 2,567 MW, suggesting that intraday solar fluctuations were not the main factor behind the price movements.
The current generation mix reflects a system less reliant on high-cost thermal units: hydro accounted for approximately 24%, coal 18%, gas 12%, wind 15%, and nuclear 17%, with imports making up about 6%. This shift has diminished gas’s influence on pricing, enabling prices to retreat from previous highs.
The region continues to exhibit strong reliance on imports, with net imports increasing to 2,913 MW, up by 709 MW. Flows from core markets such as Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia rose significantly to 4,524 MW, an increase of 1,095 MW. This trend highlights that the price drop was not due to oversupply within SEE but rather improved access to imported power coupled with reduced thermal generation needs.
The HU-DE spread widened to €23.67/MWh, indicating that German prices remain notably lower than those in Hungary. This situation underscores Hungary’s ongoing challenges related to congestion and regional balancing costs despite its price decline.
The intraday pricing structure further illustrates volatility within the market. Hungary recorded minimum hourly prices as low as €3.0/MWh, peaking at €175.6/MWh. Slovenia showed similar patterns with lows around €1.7/MWh and highs exceeding €135/MWh. Romania maintained a higher floor with minimum prices near €92/MWh, reflecting tighter system conditions.
The forward market outlook remains supportive of elevated pricing despite recent spot corrections. Austrian gas for May traded at €52.06/MWh, rising slightly day on day, while carbon allowances eased marginally to €71.69/t. Hungarian forward power contracts are holding firm with Week 15 at €99.50/MWh, Week 16 at €114.50/MWh, May-26 at €97.50/MWh, and Cal-26 at €113.50/MWh.
The structural imbalance is further evidenced by cross-border flow data showing Romania, Serbia, and Greece as net importers; Romania exhibited the largest deficit at approximately -1,073 MW, followed closely by Serbia at -651 MW . Hungary itself remained slightly import-dependent at around -191 MW despite its closer ties to core supply.
This ongoing reliance on imports is a significant factor preventing southeastern prices from converging with those in Hungary during bearish market conditions.
The weather forecast suggests continued easing in demand as temperatures are expected to rise across the region—Hungary approaching 14°C and Serbia and Romania nearing between 14°C and 15°C—further reducing heating demand.
The short-term trading landscape appears asymmetric; core-linked hubs like Hungary, Slovenia, and Croatia are likely more responsive to bearish signals such as increased wind generation and lower demand levels. Conversely, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, and Serbia are expected to maintain their structural premiums unless there are substantial improvements in local generation or import availability.
This session illustrates a market undergoing rebalancing rather than outright weakening; while wind generation and milder weather have triggered price declines, underlying structural constraints continue to shape pricing behavior across SEE.
The direction of future price movements will hinge less on absolute demand figures and more on the ability of the system to sustain reduced gas consumption levels. If wind output remains high alongside robust cross-border flows, further downward pressure on prices in HUPX and surrounding markets may be anticipated; otherwise, the southeastern premium could persist as markets revert quickly to higher clearing levels.
