The South-East European power market has kicked off the week with a notable rebound in day-ahead prices, reversing a trend of softness observed over the weekend. This increase is attributed to a recovery in demand coupled with a significant drop in renewable energy output, particularly affecting the southern and eastern Balkan markets where structural tightness continues to influence pricing dynamics.
In Serbia, day-ahead baseload prices surged to 71.24 €/MWh, positioning SEEPEX as the most expensive market in the region. Greece and Albania followed closely at 70.35 €/MWh and 70.29 €/MWh, respectively. Montenegro’s price settled at 64.99 €/MWh, while Bulgaria and Romania recorded prices of 62.08 €/MWh and 60.35 €/MWh. In contrast, Central European markets displayed softer pricing, with Hungary at 47.25 €/MWh, Croatia at 36.04 €/MWh, and Slovenia at just 29.16 €/MWh, underscoring a pronounced north-south pricing divergence.
The scale of the price rebound was substantial, with Greece experiencing a remarkable day-on-day increase of 39.2%, Bulgaria rising by 30.9%, Serbia by 29.5%, and Romania by 29.2%. This indicates that the tightening conditions are systemic across the Balkan basin rather than localized phenomena. Hungary’s more modest increase of 13.0% reinforces its position as the region’s price floor.
A critical factor in this price movement was a deterioration in the regional power balance, characterized by a rise in total consumption to 28,701 MW, an increase of 1,377 MW from the previous day, while total generation plummeted to 25,292 MW, down by 2,694 MW. This widening deficit necessitated increased reliance on imports, with total net imports climbing to 2,592 MW, an uptick of 561 MW. Key inflows from Austria and Slovakia reached 3,210 MW, increasing by 554 MW.
The tightening conditions were primarily driven by declines across various generation sources: wind output decreased by 855 MW, solar by 430 MW, and hydro by 354 MW. Even thermal generation saw reductions, with coal down by 253 MW and gas down by 178 MW. This widespread drop in supply coinciding with recovering demand created an environment conducive to rapid repricing within day-ahead markets.
The role of renewables has been particularly impactful; forecast solar output fell to 1,842 MW, while wind generation decreased to 3,502 MW. Such reductions removed a significant volume of low-cost generation from the grid, leading to higher clearing prices in a market sensitive to marginal supply changes.
The elevated position of Serbia within this pricing landscape is noteworthy; at 71.24 €/MWh, it traded nearly 24 €/MWh above Hungary, highlighting ongoing structural tightness within both Serbian and broader Balkan markets. Cross-border flow data indicates Serbia’s deep integration into regional balancing efforts, importing from Hungary and Romania while exporting towards Kosovo. This positioning tends to amplify price volatility during periods of tight supply.
The dynamics between regional spreads further illustrate segmentation within the market. The spread between Hungary and Germany narrowed to 44.21 €/MWh, down by 6 €/MWh, suggesting some convergence towards Western European pricing levels. Conversely, the spread between Hungary and Greece widened significantly to –23.10 €/MWh, reflecting tighter conditions in southern Balkans.
The forward markets have shown a more tempered response; Hungarian baseload forwards increased slightly with Week 15 priced at 99.50 €/MWh, Week 16 at 114.50 €/MWh, May-26 at 97.50 €/MWh, and Calendar 2026 at 113.50 €/MWh. Regional spreads against Hungary remained elevated, particularly for prompt weeks where they stood at 23.00 €/MWh for Week 15 and 17.50 €/MWh for Week 16.
The fuel markets did not significantly influence this day-ahead price surge; Austrian gas prices remained stable at 52.06 €/MWh, Greek gas at 51 €/MWh, while carbon prices held steady at around 71.06 €/t. Coal forwards experienced slight increases but overall fuel market stability suggests that recent price movements were driven more by immediate system fundamentals rather than broader structural shifts.
The intraday price profiles across major exchanges highlight ongoing volatility; Hungarian prices exhibited negative pricing during off-peak hours reaching minimums of –171.6 €/MWh. Peak prices exceeded 180 €/MWh, illustrating growing intraday spreads influenced by renewable intermittency—a pattern also evident in Romania, Greece, and Slovenia.
The macroeconomic backdrop remains conducive to volatility; European gas prices have recently surpassed $600 per 1,000 m³ for the first time in over two years due to geopolitical tensions and LNG supply uncertainties. Additionally, grid constraints across Europe are increasingly hindering the integration of new renewable capacities—over 120 GW of planned projects face connection challenges—further complicating market dynamics in SEE regions where network limitations significantly affect price formation.
This recent price rebound should be viewed as indicative of ongoing structural fragility within the regional power balance rather than a definitive bullish trend. The SEE market’s heavy dependence on imports alongside vulnerability to renewable output fluctuations underscores its precarious position during transitional weather periods.
The short-term trading landscape remains clear: persistent premiums in Serbia, Greece, and Albania signal continued tightness in these southern Balkan systems while Hungary and Slovenia maintain their status as relatively softer markets. As long as renewable output remains unstable and import dependencies remain high, these regional spreads are likely to persist, presenting opportunities for cross-border arbitrage strategies.
The forthcoming sessions will hinge on developments in wind and solar generation; any recovery could lead to reduced spreads and lower prices particularly within southern markets. Conversely, sustained weaknesses in renewables coupled with stable or rising demand may perpetuate upward pressure on prices across SEE markets compared to their Central European counterparts.
