On March 23, 2026, the power markets in Southeast Europe (SEE) and Hungary reported a notable price spike, with Hungary leading at €159.38/MWh. Romania followed closely at €155.42/MWh, while Bulgaria, Greece, Slovenia, and Croatia recorded prices of €151.00/MWh, €147.74/MWh, €154.95/MWh, and €154.81/MWh, respectively. Serbia’s price was lower at €137.52/MWh, with Albania at €134.17/MWh, North Macedonia at €131.02/MWh, and Montenegro at €124.54/MWh. This indicates a high-price regime across the region, although southern non-EU markets remain significantly cheaper than the HUPX-led core.
The primary catalyst for this price increase is a substantial day-on-day rise across the region rather than localized disruptions. The Hungarian Power Exchange (HUPX) saw an increase of €65.9/MWh, with Romania up by €65.3/MWh, Bulgaria by €60.9/MWh, Greece by €63.0/MWh, Slovenia by €60.5/MWh, Croatia by €61.1/MWh, and Serbia by €52.5/MWh. Despite Serbia’s strong rise, it remains approximately €21.86/MWh below Hungary, indicating participation in the overall market rally without complete alignment with the central pricing hub.
The current regional balance reflects tighter conditions, with forecast consumption for SEE and Hungary reaching 34,235 MW, an increase of 3,093 MW from the previous day. In contrast, total generation has decreased to 32,049 MW, down by 2,410 MW. This mismatch between rising demand and declining supply is a significant factor contributing to the observed price strength. Although net imports remain negative at -462 MW, indicating that the region is still a net exporter overall, this position has narrowed considerably from previous levels, suggesting reduced system comfort.
A critical weakness on the supply side stems from renewable energy sources, particularly wind generation, which has dropped significantly. Forecast wind generation is now at 2,951 MW, down by 852 MW. The total wind output is also down to 3,803 MW, a decrease of 1,000 MW. Hydro generation has fallen to 5,870 MW, down by 741 MW. Solar output is similarly insufficient to compensate for these losses, with current generation at 2,986 MW, down by 185 MW. As demand surges on Monday and renewable contributions dwindle, there is an increased reliance on thermal plants and imports.
The thermal generation sector is partially addressing this gap; coal output stands at 7,229 MW, gas at 5,017 MW, while nuclear power remains stable at 5,839 MW. This mix indicates a reliance on baseload thermal and nuclear energy sources as variable renewables lose their influence compared to the previous day. Consequently, price spreads to lower-priced Balkan exchanges remain evident: Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia are trading cheaper; however, the entire curve has been pulled upward due to regional scarcity signals.
The dynamics of cross-border trade also play a significant role in shaping market conditions. The region is currently importing 1,592 MW from core markets—a day-on-day increase of 339 MW. The widening spread between Hungary and Germany’s day-ahead prices now stands at €17.46/MWh. Typically, such a positive spread encourages imports from northwest markets into Hungary and subsequently into SEE where transmission allows it. However, persistent high prices despite increased inflows suggest that import capabilities are cushioning rather than eliminating the upward price pressure.
Sarajevo’s SEEPEX market shows resilience at a price of €137.52/MWh, remaining below other key markets like Hungary and Romania but still reflecting tight local balances or limited convergence with higher-priced areas. Montenegro continues to be the lowest-priced market at €124.54/MWh, yet the differential with Serbia remains around only €13/MWh, indicating similar market regimes.
The intraday price structure reveals an evening-driven tightness pattern rather than consistent scarcity throughout the day. Price peaks across various exchanges cluster around hours 19 or 20 while minima are typically observed around hour 13—aligning with midday solar contributions followed by sharp evening repricing as solar output diminishes. In Serbia specifically, maximum prices reach up to €225/MWh, while minima drop to around €80/MWh; in Hungary maximums hit approximately €274.1 /MWh with minimums around €82.7 /MWh . This variability underscores that flexibility remains a scarce resource across the region.
The forward fuel landscape appears supportive but does not serve as an immediate trigger for today’s price movements. CEGH gas prices are currently at approximately €61.43 /MWh while Greek gas is priced at €56 .43 /MWh , and EUA emissions allowances stand at €67 .66 /t . Additionally , Hungarian week and month forward power products remain elevated alongside high coal forwards . These factors contribute to maintaining firm marginal thermal costs; however , today’s day-ahead surge is more closely tied to increased Monday load coupled with declines in hydro and wind outputs alongside greater dependence on imports.
The trading outlook for today indicates that the SEE market is entering a bullish reset as it grapples with tighter physical balances alongside diminishing renewable support . Hungary continues to lead in pricing , while Romania , Bulgaria , Croatia , and Slovenia trade within elevated ranges . Serbia remains discounted relative to core markets but still reflects a tight system overall . Unless there is a swift recovery in wind or hydro production beyond forecasts , the region is likely to maintain structural firmness through peak evening hours , with cross-border spreads continuing to illustrate disparities between core-imported markets versus lower-priced southern Balkan exchanges.
