On May 6, the South-East European electricity markets witnessed a notable increase in spot prices as a result of declining renewable energy output, tighter regional balances, and heightened evening demand. The Hungarian HUPX baseload price rose to €126.25/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM settled at €131.52/MWh and Slovenia’s BSP reached €133.81/MWh. This trend marks a continuation of the recent upward movement in power prices across Central and SEE regions.
Despite moderate overall demand conditions, the market structure has shown increasing intraday volatility. Total power consumption in SEE and Hungary decreased to 27.8 GW, down approximately 340 MW from the previous day. However, the reduction in renewable generation has tightened system balances, necessitating an increase in thermal generation.
Solar energy production in the region fell by over 520 MW, with wind output decreasing by around 150 MW. Additionally, hydro generation weakened by approximately 340 MW, attributed to lower water availability and reduced flexibility within various Balkan systems.
In response to the decline in renewable output, thermal assets have re-entered the dispatch stack. Coal-fired generation saw an increase of more than 600 MW, while gas-fired generation rose by about 180 MW. This shift underscores the growing dependence of SEE markets on conventional generation sources during periods of lower renewable energy availability.
The divergence between daytime and evening pricing profiles has attracted attention from market participants. Hourly pricing curves across HUPX, OPCOM, BSP, and HENEX displayed significant midday weakness followed by pronounced peaks during evening hours (20-21), highlighting the impact of solar cannibalization effects amid insufficient storage capacity across the region.
Hungary continues to serve as a central balancing hub within the regional market framework. The spread between Hungarian and German day-ahead prices widened sharply to around €3.8/MWh, reversing earlier trends observed during periods of stronger renewable output in Central Europe.
Cross-border flow data indicates persistent north-south balancing pressures. Romania has been exporting approximately 1.36 GW, while Serbia remains structurally short with net imports near 560 MW. Croatia is also a net importer at around 730 MW. Bulgaria has maintained heavy exports toward Romania and Serbia, while Hungary continues strong export activity into Croatia and Serbia.
The forward markets have also shown signs of strengthening, bolstered by rising fuel and carbon prices. The Hungarian Week 20 baseload price increased to €104.5/MWh, with Cal-26 trading close to €114/MWh. EUA carbon allowances have climbed toward €75.7/t, while Austrian CEGH gas prices surpassed €49/MWh.
This strengthening forward market complex supports favorable clean spark and dark spread economics for flexible thermal assets across SEE, particularly during evening balancing periods.
The operational reliability of regional thermal infrastructure remains under scrutiny. Bosnia’s RiTE Ugljevik reported a first-quarter loss of €18.3 million, primarily due to prolonged outages caused by coal supply shortages and delayed mining development works. The unit recently resumed operations after being offline since January.
Montenegro’s EPCG has also reported significant financial challenges, posting a net loss of €92.1 million for 2025 following an extended environmental reconstruction outage at TPP Pljevlja, which significantly reduced domestic generation capacity and increased balancing costs for the utility.
The hydropower development landscape across the Western Balkans continues to face financing and execution hurdles. Bosnia’s HPP Dabar project has slowed considerably after China Exim Bank suspended financing due to unmet contractual milestones. Additionally, ERS terminated the construction contract for HPP Mrsovo following disputes related to redesign requirements tied to stricter flood-protection standards.
Romanian authorities have initiated a proposed support mechanism valued at €500 million for biofuel production projects, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel facilities under the Modernization Fund framework. This initiative reflects a growing regional investment focus on decarbonization-linked industrial infrastructure rather than solely expanding conventional generation capacity.
<pIn Serbia, market participants are closely monitoring negotiations regarding NIS ownership restructuring. Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic indicated that discussions involving MOL and GazpromNeft could conclude by mid-May, coinciding with the OFAC licensing deadline later this month.
Weather forecasts suggest stable temperatures across most SEE markets in the coming days, potentially limiting immediate demand-side volatility. However, traders remain vigilant regarding variability in renewable generation and evening balancing risks as the region approaches the higher solar-output summer season.
The overarching market narrative reflects a transition from traditional supply scarcity to flexibility scarcity. While renewable penetration is rapidly increasing across SEE, the pace of storage deployment, interconnection upgrades, and balancing-market development remains inadequate to fully manage intraday renewable volatility.
This situation results in simultaneous midday oversupply pressure alongside evening scarcity pricing, reinforcing structural volatility throughout both spot and forward curves.
