The Southeast European (SEE) electricity market has undergone a significant bullish reset as of April 29, 2026, primarily influenced by colder weather conditions, rising regional demand, reduced output from renewable energy sources (RES), and a heightened reliance on imports. The Hungarian Power Exchange (HUPX) recorded a settlement price of €112.66/MWh, marking an increase of €9.4/MWh from the previous day. Other regional markets also saw notable price rises: Romania reached €110.89/MWh, Bulgaria hit €101.50/MWh, Serbia settled at €107.06/MWh, Croatia at €109.76/MWh, and Slovenia at €108.93/MWh. In contrast, North Macedonia remained the lowest at €74.54/MWh, while Italy maintained its position as the premium market at €115.80/MWh.
The tightening of regional balance was a key factor driving these price changes. Total consumption in SEE surged to 29,312 MW, an increase of 1,234 MW compared to the previous day. Concurrently, net imports rose dramatically to 1,752 MW, reflecting an increase of 1,509 MW. Notably, core imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungary/SEE perimeter climbed to 3,336 MW, illustrating the necessity for Central European supply to address regional shortages. This situation was exacerbated by a decline in solar output by 1,424 MW and wind generation by 243 MW, which removed lower-cost midday supply options.
The evolving spread structure further substantiates the tightening market conditions. The spot spread between Hungary and Germany (HU-DE) widened to €47.31/MWh, up by €14.7/MWh, indicating that prices in Hungary and SEE are significantly higher than those in Germany. Conversely, the HU-GR spread narrowed to €15.65/MWh, suggesting Greece’s pricing is approaching that of Hungary but remains below HUPX levels. This indicates that the strongest import signals are emanating from the northwest, while southern SEE markets continue to offer lower prices compared to Hungary.
Serbia’s trading performance aligned more closely with core regional prices rather than those of its lower Balkan neighbors. The Serbian Power Exchange (SEEPEX) recorded a price of €107.06/MWh, reflecting an increase of €10.3/MWh. Although this leaves Serbia at €5.60/MWh below HUPX, it still ranks above Greece, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia, suggesting that Serbian prices are influenced more by trends in Hungary, Croatia, and Slovenia than by cheaper southern markets.
The intraday price dynamics exhibited considerable volatility. HUPX data revealed a pronounced midday trough around hour 15, followed by a steep evening ramp peaking around hour 21. This pattern is consistent with typical April trends where solar energy depresses midday prices; however, as solar generation decreases later in the day, residual demand coupled with imports leads to significant evening scarcity premiums.
Looking ahead at forward indicators presents a mixed picture: CEGH gas prices hovered around €46.05/MWh, while Greek gas prices eased slightly to €45.9/MWh. The European Union Allowance (EUA) price increased marginally to €75.11/t. Hungarian forward power prices indicated week-19 at €99.50/MWh, week-20 at €91.00/MWh, May-26 at €93.50/MWh, and Cal-26 at €111.50/MWh. Coal forward prices remained stable within the range of $104.5–114.5/t, contributing to firm thermal marginal costs without being the predominant factor influencing spot pricing.
The developments on April 29 highlight that the observed price increases were not merely driven by fuel costs but were primarily a result of balance-driven repricing mechanisms in response to lower RES outputs, colder weather conditions, increased demand, and higher import levels tightening supplies in SEE and Hungary. Consequently, this has resulted in Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Romania entering the pricing band of €107–111/MWh. While midday pricing pressures persist, traders must remain vigilant regarding potential risks associated with evening price spikes.
