Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices rebounded sharply for Monday, 31 August, as trading moved out of the weekend. Peak-hour values recovered while import availability from core European markets was reduced, widening regional spreads. The pattern left most interconnected eastern and central markets clustered within a narrow price band.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload increased by €46/MWh to €173.41/MWh. Romania rose by €50.1/MWh to €174.90/MWh, while Slovenia settled at €173.61/MWh and Albania at €173.42/MWh. Croatia closed at €172.28/MWh, with Bulgaria and Greece both at €171.24/MWh, producing a relatively tight €171–175/MWh range across much of the region.
Serbia keeps a deep discount despite higher Monday prices
Serbia was the main outlier as SEEPEX increased by €35/MWh on the day but ended at only €132.21/MWh. That left Serbia at a €41.20/MWh discount to Hungary. Montenegro settled at €162.69/MWh, or €10.72/MWh below HUPX, while North Macedonia closed at €152.58/MWh, a discount of €20.84/MWh.
The shift reflected a return of weekday peak structure after exceptionally weak Sunday daytime pricing rather than a uniform tightening across southeast Europe. On HUPX, the Monday peak contract averaged €145.2/MWh, compared with €60.8/MWh on Sunday, an increase of more than €84/MWh. Off-peak prices rose from €194.1/MWh to €201.6/MWh.
Hungary’s hourly minimum moved from -€1.4/MWh on Sunday to €84.4/MWh for Monday, while the Monday maximum reached €254.3/MWh at hour 19. The same peak-focused repricing appeared in Serbia: SEEPEX peakload rose from €44.9/MWh on Sunday to €123.3/MWh on Monday. Serbia’s off-peak level declined from €149.5/MWh to €141.1/MWh.
Serbia’s baseload increased to €132.2/MWh from €97.2/MWh, even as the discount versus neighbouring markets persisted. Its Monday hourly range remained wide, from €50/MWh to €233.2/MWh. This profile indicated that the Serbian baseload change was driven primarily by peak-hour repricing rather than a simple across-the-curve move.
Cross-border flows and Germany-Hungary separation shape regional spreads
Cross-border data pointed to why major SEE markets moved higher even though aggregate consumption fell day on day. Combined Hungary and SEE consumption was indicated at 30,866 MW, down 495 MW. Regional generation increased to 28,281 MW, from 27,515 MW, reducing net imports to 2,585 MW, from 3,846 MW.
The decline in imports was particularly pronounced from the Austria-Slovakia core into Hungary and Slovenia, falling to 2,947 MW from 4,407 MW. That represented a reduction of 1,460 MW. The price signal aligned with higher marginal value for available cross-border supply despite lower overall import needs.
The relationship with Germany showed the clearest separation: German day-ahead baseload settled at only €111.85/MWh. Hungary traded at a €61.56/MWh premium, around €9.7/MWh wider than the previous day, while Austria reached €177.99/MWh. The Italian benchmark stood at €197.31/MWh.
The market on Monday was almost converged across Hungary through Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Slovenia, Croatia and Albania, while remaining sharply disconnected from Germany on one side and from Serbia and parts of the western Balkans on the other. The Germany-Hungary separation was described as more relevant for regional price formation than the Hungary-Greece spread of only €2.18/MWh.
Bilateral scheduling leaves Serbia as a distinct SEEPEX price zone
The persistence of Serbia’s discount occurred alongside continued net importing rather than surplus export positioning. Average Serbian consumption was forecast at 3,574 MW, against generation of 3,089 MW, implying net imports of around 485 MW. Serbia imported on average from Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina while exporting towards Montenegro and North Macedonia.
Bulgaria supplied Serbia with average imports of 276 MW, Romania with 160 MW, and Hungary with 174 MW. Serbia also scheduled around 160 MW towards Montenegro and about 50 MW towards North Macedonia on a baseload basis. The continued €41/MWh discount despite net imports indicated that domestic supply surplus alone did not explain the separation.
The same cross-border structure extended into Montenegro’s position as well as its role in flows toward Italy. Montenegro’s domestic balance remained import-dependent with consumption at 485 MW generation 342 MW scheduled 569 MW toward Italy
