South-east Europe and Hungary opened the new week with a sharp recovery in day-ahead power prices on 15 June 2026. The move reflected a market increasingly shaped by hourly patterns rather than broad fuel-driven tightness. The daily data showed solar-heavy midday hours staying soft, including periods with very low prices, while scarcity value shifted toward the post-solar evening ramp.
Hungary and regional price levels
Hungary was the clearest marker for the repricing. HUPX settled at €91.89/MWh, up €31.9/MWh from Sunday, returning Hungary to its role as a key pricing anchor after the weekend low-price pattern. Romania followed at €90.24/MWh, with Slovenia at €87.85/MWh, Croatia at €87.23/MWh, Greece at €86.75/MWh and Bulgaria at €85.71/MWh.
The broader SEE complex repriced upward in a relatively coordinated move, but not evenly across markets. Italy remained the premium market at €130.02/MWh, while Serbia was the deep regional discount at €53.40/MWh, or €38.49/MWh below HUPX.
Cross-border spreads and export flows
The price divergence indicated that the region was not trading purely as a thermal-fuel-cost bloc. The same daily balance could produce different outcomes depending on interconnector availability, liquidity, solar penetration, hydro flexibility and the ability to move power into premium zones. Italy’s premium over Hungary, at roughly €38.13/MWh, supported an export signal toward Italy.
Flows to Italy rose to around 1,055 MW. Western Balkans markets stayed structurally cheaper, with Albania at €64.56/MWh, Montenegro at €72.50/MWh, and North Macedonia at €72.05/MWh. The gaps created arbitrage value while also highlighting limits of physical integration tied to border capacity, auction costs, balancing risk and carbon-adjusted treatment.
Load recovery versus import levels
The physical balance did not point to an outright regional supply squeeze. Average regional consumption increased to 28,944 MW, up 3,337 MW from Sunday as weekday load returned. Total net imports fell to 1,652 MW, down 1,325 MW day-on-day.
The region paid more even while importing less, indicating that the price move related more to load shape and residual-hour tightness than external supply shortages. Core imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungary–Slovenia area remained material at 2,970 MW. The Hungary–Germany spread narrowed to €17.62/MWh, compared with €34.8/MWh previously.
Hourly curve: midday softness and evening peak
The hourly curve showed the main driver behind the day-ahead rebound in Hungary. HUPX recorded a minimum of just €4.9/MWh at H14, during solar-rich midday hours, before rising to a maximum of €182.2/MWh at H21. The baseload settlement of €91.9/MWh therefore masked a highly distorted intraday pattern.
The traditional peak block was weaker at €59.4/MWh, while the off-peak block reached €124.4/MWh. This inversion reflected higher value in morning and evening hours outside the solar-suppressed midday window. Solar-shaped midday trough management and coverage of the evening ramp became central to trading outcomes.
Solar generation forecast and wind support
Solar output forecast and residual demand coverage needs
Solar output was central to the intraday shape. Regional solar generation was forecast at 7,296 MW, up 2,812 MW day-on-day. That level of production compressed prices during daylight hours when conditions aligned with soft demand or weaker export routes.
The market still required coverage once solar output fell in the evening through hydro, gas, coal, imports and flexible generation. Wind provided only modest support at 1,160 MW.
Bilateral balances across countries in HU+SEE area
Bulgaria and Greece were net contributors during the session, with Bulgaria exporting around 489 MW and Greece around 264 MW. Croatia was the largest importer at roughly
