Most Southeast European day-ahead power markets fell on 12 August, with Hungary’s HUPX baseload contract also declining. The move coincided with higher wind and solar forecasts and a slightly lower regional demand outlook. Hungary and the wider SEE region shifted from net imports to a small net-export position.
Day-ahead price changes in Southeast Europe and neighboring markets
On HUPX, the baseload contract settled at EUR 144.89/MWh, down EUR 6.50/MWh from the previous session. Romania decreased by EUR 11.60 to EUR 137.91/MWh, while Bulgaria fell EUR 21.10 to EUR 125.58/MWh. Serbia recorded the largest drop, falling EUR 36.30 to EUR 113.61/MWh.
Greece remained the cheapest market among the Southeast European group at EUR 104.46/MWh, down EUR 11.30/MWh. Slovenia and Croatia were close to Hungary at EUR 145.07/MWh and EUR 144.53/MWh respectively. Montenegro settled at EUR 141.50/MWh, while North Macedonia reached EUR 139.47/MWh.
Albania was the only market in the region to rise, increasing by EUR 6.60 to EUR 156.43/MWh. Italy stayed the most expensive neighboring market at EUR 176.07/MWh despite a EUR 5.10 decline.
Germany moved in the opposite direction, with its day-ahead price rising by EUR 28 to EUR 138.40/MWh. That lifted the premium of Hungary over Germany to EUR 6.49/MWh, compared with around EUR 41/MWh one day earlier. Hungary traded at EUR 40.43/MWh above Greece, EUR 19.30/MWh above Bulgaria, and EUR 31.27/MWh above Serbia.
Renewable output outlook and demand forecast
The main driver cited for the price declines was an increase in renewable generation forecasts across Hungary and Southeast Europe . Expected solar output rose by 1,731 MW to 8,904 MW, while wind generation increased by 1,193 MW to 3,825 MW. Combined wind and solar production was forecast at 12,729 MW, up 2,924 MW.
Regional electricity demand was forecast at 33,615 MW, down 250 MW day on day . Hungary accounted for much of the decrease, with consumption falling by 453 MW to 4,610 MW. Demand increased by 407 MW across Romania and Bulgaria and by 23 MW in Greece, while Slovenia and Croatia recorded a combined decline of 265 MW.
Cross-border flows shift as SEE moves into net exports
The stronger renewable balance changed cross-border power flows materially . Hungary and SEE moved from net imports of 1,786 MW on Tuesday to net exports of 214 MW on Wednesday, a swing of about 2,000 MW. Imports from Austria and Slovakia fell by 1,793 MW to 1,089 MW, while exports toward Italy increased by 237 MW to around 1,302 MW.
At country level, Greece was the largest net exporter at 1,763 MW, followed by Bulgaria at 1,155 MW. Hungary remained the largest importer at 1,468 MW, while Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia and Montenegro also stayed in deficit . Romania recorded a modest net-export position of 287 MW.
Hungarian forwards firm despite weaker spot pricing; fuel markets mixed
The spot market weakened while near-term Hungarian power forwards strengthened . Week 34 rose by EUR 6.50 to EUR 161/MWh and week 35 gained the same amount to EUR 160/MWh. September power declined by EUR 3.50 to EUR 160/MWh, while calendar year 2026 fell by EUR 1.50 to EUR 125/MWh.
The week-ahead Hungarian premium over Germany widened to EUR 30.50/MWh for week 34 and EUR 36.50/MWh for week 35 . The September spread stood at EUR 28/MWh, while the calendar year 2026 spread remained unchanged at EUR 20.50/MWh.
{{Fuel markets added further downward pressure along the forward curve}} September gas fell by EUR 2 to
