On 4 March 2026, the Central Europe–Southeast Europe (SEE) power corridor underwent a significant transformation in trading dynamics, marked by sharp price increases across the Central-East cluster while southern SEE regions lagged. This uneven price movement indicated changing marginal costs and congestion assumptions across different hubs, highlighting the complex interplay of supply and demand factors within the region.
Hungary emerged as the central pricing hub with a day-ahead settlement at €142.64/MWh, reflecting a substantial increase of €27.7/MWh compared to the previous day. Slovenia’s BSP followed closely at €137.94/MWh, up €28.4/MWh, while Croatia’s CROPEX reported €134.62/MWh, an increase of €24.0/MWh. Romania and Bulgaria both settled at €126.64/MWh, each rising by €11.3/MWh. In contrast, Greece and Serbia experienced downward pressure on prices, with Greece at €102.04/MWh (down €3.8/MWh) and Serbia’s SEEPEX at €99.58/MWh (down €8.1/MWh). This resulted in a clear two-speed pricing structure: a Central-East strip ranging from €126 to €143/MWh versus a southern edge hovering around the €100/MWh mark.
The disparities in pricing are critical for trading strategies, as they create opportunities for spread trading between hubs. The implied spread between Hungary and Serbia was approximately €43/MWh in favor of Hungary, indicating significant market divergence that could stem from congestion into Hungary or softer demand in Serbia. Similarly, Hungary’s premium over Greece was about €40/MWh, suggesting a notable separation between these increasingly interconnected markets.
The underlying macroeconomic factors driving these shifts included recent gas price volatility. CEGH Austrian gas prices rose to €56.79/MWh, up by €12.4 day-on-day, while Dutch TTF April futures surged to approximately €65.5/MWh after a dramatic increase from previous levels. This gas price hike is expected to influence power prices where gas plays a critical role in setting marginal costs.
Despite these changes, regional consumption metrics indicated that the system was not facing an outright shortage but rather rebalancing unevenly across borders. Total regional consumption reached 34,689 MW—an increase of 390 MW day-on-day—while net imports showed a negative balance of −1,072 MW overall. However, CORE imports decreased by 386 MW day-on-day to 548 MW, suggesting shifts in import dependencies rather than a uniform rise across the board.
The generation mix on this date further elucidates why Central-East hubs moved together while southern hubs did not. Total generation was around 35,102 MW, with hydro generation down by 759 MW to 10,895 MW and nuclear output reduced by 781 MW to 4,739 MW. Conversely, coal production increased by 560 MW to 6,734 MW and gas generation rose by 707 MW to reach 6,593 MW. This shift towards higher-cost generation sources steepens the marginal cost curve and is likely to push prices higher in gas-dependent markets.
Intraday pricing behavior reinforced expectations for more expensive evening structures rather than uniform scarcity throughout the day. Hungary’s HUPX recorded an off-peak average of €160.5/MWh and a daily maximum of €284.8/MWh during peak hours around H19. Slovenia exhibited similar patterns with its daily maximum reaching €310.9/MWh at peak times.
Market participants are advised to consider these dynamics when developing trading strategies; high-conviction trades often involve relative positioning rather than directional bets based solely on price movements at individual hubs. The observed price dispersion suggests potential persistence in spreads if local supply conditions remain unchanged or if demand fluctuations occur.
Moreover, liquidity levels across exchanges play a crucial role in how these spreads can be effectively traded. Serbia’s SEEPEX reported trading volumes of over 414 GWh in February 2026 while Croatia’s CROPEX handled nearly 906 GWh during the same period—both figures indicating relatively shallow liquidity compared to core EU markets.
As market participants navigate this evolving landscape post-4 March 2026, understanding the implications of gas pricing dynamics and regional generation shifts will be essential for informed decision-making in Southeast Europe’s interconnected power markets.
