Recent trends in Southeast European power markets reveal a significant divergence in pricing dynamics, particularly highlighted by Serbia’s notable price increase amidst rising demand and robust import flows. On a day marked by contrasting movements, Serbia experienced the most substantial day-on-day gain, while neighboring markets faced downward pressure due to strong renewable energy generation and improved regional balances.
On Tuesday, the day-ahead baseload price on Hungary’s HUPX fell to €103.26/MWh, down by €1.5/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM saw a sharper decline, dropping to €84.99/MWh (-€8.4/MWh), while Bulgaria’s IBEX decreased to €76.13/MWh (-€4.5/MWh). Greece followed suit with a price of €75.66/MWh, reflecting a broader trend of softening prices across the southeastern region.
In stark contrast, Serbia’s SEEPEX surged to €96.75/MWh, marking an increase of €14.3/MWh, the largest in the region. Croatia’s CROPEX also saw a modest rise, reaching €100.32/MWh (+€1.9/MWh). This divergence underscores a growing split between Central European markets, typically trading around €100/MWh, and southeastern hubs clustered closer to the €75–85/MWh range.
The rising demand in the SEE region exerted upward pressure on prices despite strong generation levels. Total electricity demand reached 28,328 MW, an increase of 1,058 MW day-on-day, indicating a solid underlying load profile that is not solely dependent on weather conditions.
Simultaneously, generation capacity increased significantly to 27,624 MW, driven primarily by enhanced hydro and solar output. Hydropower generation rose to 6,252 MW (+1,001 MW) and solar power reached 5,174 MW (+557 MW). This growing reliance on renewables is increasingly shaping intraday price dynamics.
Despite the uptick in renewable energy production, prices in tighter markets like Serbia remained resilient due to balancing requirements and import constraints that played a crucial role in price determination. Cross-border electricity flows intensified as total net imports rose to 173 MW, an increase of 526 MW. Inflows from Austria and Slovakia surged to 1,951 MW, reflecting heightened interconnectivity within the region.
The widening spread between Hungary and Germany prices, now at €32.6/MWh, has highlighted ongoing price tensions between Western and Central European markets. This situation has encouraged increased import flows into the SEE region while also exposing internal transmission bottlenecks that may affect market stability.
Intraday price volatility was notably high, particularly in Hungary where prices fluctuated dramatically from negative levels to significant peaks during evening hours. Day-ahead data indicated minimum prices plummeting as low as -€500/MWh, while peak hours exceeded €275/MWh. Such fluctuations reflect oversupply during solar generation hours followed by tighter conditions later in the day.
This pattern of volatility was similarly observed across Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria, suggesting that regional markets are increasingly influenced by renewable-driven price fluctuations rather than traditional fuel-cost fundamentals.
The gas and carbon markets offered limited support for pricing direction; Austrian CEGH gas prices remained stable around €46/MWh, with EU carbon allowances easing slightly. This indicates that current power pricing is becoming more influenced by system balance rather than input costs.
A structural shift appears underway in SEE power markets as intermittent generation sources, cross-border congestion issues, and balancing requirements begin to overshadow traditional thermal price-setting mechanisms. Ongoing investments in flexibility assets across the region further support this transition; recent developments include new battery storage capacity initiatives in Hungary and a 52 MW storage project acquisition in Romania.
The outlook for upcoming days suggests continued price dispersion driven primarily by renewable output and cross-border flows. Markets such as Serbia and Croatia may continue to experience premium pricing during periods of constrained imports or heightened demand.
