Gas supply into Southeast Europe strengthened in Week 25, while electricity prices rose across much of the region. Greece recorded 722.23 GWh of LNG inflows, up 19.7% week-on-week. Italy’s LNG receipts reached 4,004.02 GWh, increasing 5.27%. Croatia’s LNG inflows were broadly stable at 635.84 GWh, down 0.8%.
On paper, the LNG flow data points to a well-supplied gas system across SEE. At the same time, the regional electricity market tightened despite the higher LNG availability. This divergence was reflected in price movements across multiple power markets.
LNG availability versus power price outcomes
The pattern highlights a separation between fuel logistics and electricity pricing when dispatchable generation is needed. LNG infrastructure can improve gas supply security and support feedstock availability for gas-fired power plants, but it does not automatically reduce electricity prices when thermal units are required more often. In Week 25, gas-fired generation across SEE increased by 32.3%.
Within that context, Greece showed a different price response than other markets. Strong LNG inflows coincided with higher renewable output, contributing to electricity prices falling to €85.50/MWh. The outcome aligned with the role of system flexibility supported by gas infrastructure and the contribution of renewables and market positioning.
Greece, Italy and Croatia: contrasting price moves
Italy recorded a higher level of LNG inflows but remained the most expensive market in SEE at €127.69/MWh. The increase was linked to structural electricity tightness rather than fuel scarcity, with elevated demand, weaker hydro output, reduced wind generation and a sharp rise in thermal dispatch. Even with gas available, firm generation and imports were still required to sustain supply.
Croatia followed a similar direction between gas flows and power pricing. LNG inflows stayed broadly stable at 635.84 GWh, while electricity prices rose by 11.2% to €102.36/MWh. The drivers included stronger demand, weaker renewable output and greater reliance on imports.
Flexibility role of LNG in tight conditions
Across SEE, LNG is increasingly operating as a flexibility enabler rather than a direct stabiliser for electricity prices. The ability of gas-fired generation to respond depends on how frequently and how intensively the power system requires that flexibility during tight periods.
The Week 25 results also indicate that even a well-supplied gas system cannot fully prevent volatility in electricity markets when power-system fundamentals tighten . Virtu.Energy
