The Bulgarian Commission for Energy and Water Regulation (KEVR) has approved a 5.84% increase in the wholesale natural gas price for July 2026, based on a proposal submitted by the state-owned supplier Bulgargaz in mid-June. The regulated wholesale gas price for the month is set at 37.7 euros/MWh, excluding VAT and excise duty. Despite the rise, the level remains below European benchmark prices.
KEVR previously approved a 1% decrease in the wholesale gas price for June. The July decision follows that mild downward correction, resulting in a moderate rebound within the domestic pricing framework. The regulator’s approval keeps the adjustment within a relatively contained range.
Regulated price discount versus TTF futures
KEVR said the approved Bulgarian wholesale price is about 4 euros/MWh lower than July futures at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF). TTF prices have recently been trading between 41 and 42 euros/MWh. This gap indicates that Bulgaria’s regulated pricing continues to reflect a discount relative to broader European benchmark markets.
Bulgaria’s own trading venue, Gas Hub Balkan, has been broadly aligned with European market moves. Prices on the hub have moved in a similar range of 39 to 42 euros/MWh. The pattern points to continued linkage between Bulgaria’s regulated mechanism and regional gas market dynamics.
Bulgargaz outlook for 2026 below 40 euros/MWh
Bulgargaz expects the regulated gas price to remain under 40 euros/MWh throughout the rest of 2026. The company cited a recent decline in international oil and gas prices as support for that outlook. It also linked expectations to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which it said has contributed to softer global energy market conditions.
If market conditions stay stable, Bulgaria’s regulated gas pricing is expected to continue offering a cost advantage for households and businesses compared with prevailing wholesale prices across European gas hubs. The expectation is tied to ongoing differences between regulated levels and benchmark-based wholesale pricing ranges.
