Week 23 saw regional electricity flows shift as Southeast Europe recorded higher net imports. Net imports rose 9.1% week on week to 1.22 TWh, with demand increasing and renewables output weaker. The change led markets to depend more on cross-border balancing.
Cross-border movements were spread across several countries. Hungary increased net imports 64.7% to 179.75 GWh, while Romania raised imports 34.0%. Croatia also increased imports by 18.5%. Italy remained the largest net importer at 950.91 GWh, despite a 14.1% weekly fall in imports.
Greece and Türkiye continued as net exporters, though both reduced export volumes during the week. The regional pattern coincided with continued price fragmentation across SEE markets. Italy averaged €128.09/MWh, compared with Greece at €89.25/MWh.
Price spreads and the role of cross-border capacity
The weekly averages also differed in other markets, including Serbia at €99.63/MWh, Bulgaria at €100.83/MWh, and Romania at €102.23/MWh. Hungary averaged €103.15/MWh, while Croatia was at €99.29/MWh. Wide spreads can create theoretical arbitrage opportunities, but realised outcomes depend on interconnector availability, congestion and scheduling rules.
This links transmission capacity to market outcomes in practice, alongside generation and supply positions. Moving power between price zones can be as consequential as producing electricity within a given market area. Market participants that secure capacity across constrained borders can capture spread opportunities under prevailing conditions.
The same constraints affect generators and buyers seeking export routes or cross-border supply structures. Generators with access to export routes can improve realised prices, while industrial buyers can reduce procurement costs if they are able to arrange cross-border deliveries under applicable arrangements.
Italy and Hungary highlighted by Week 23 flows and pricing
Italy remained the highest-priced SEE market while also holding the largest net importer position during Week 23. Its role combined a top regional price level with import volumes of 950.91 GWh. Even with imports down 14.1%, Italy’s pricing level remained above other regional averages cited for the week.
Hungary’s import increase also stood out within the regional picture, supported by its weekly average price of €103.15/MWh. As a Central SEE hub connected to Austria, Slovakia, Croatia, Serbia and Romania, Hungary can transmit price signals across multiple borders under available interconnector conditions.
Renewables variability and grid needs for balancing
The importance of interconnectors grows as renewables penetration increases across the region. Wind and solar variability can change a country’s net position quickly, shifting systems from export needs to import requirements depending on weather patterns over short timeframes.
A market with surplus solar at midday may require imports later in the day, while wind-heavy periods can reverse export-to-import needs as conditions change. In this context, cross-border capacity functions as a flexibility tool tied to balancing requirements rather than only a trading mechanism.
Implications for TSOs, regulators and investors in Week 23
The Week 23 results were also used to reinforce priorities for grid and market operations, including grid reinforcement, market coupling, intraday liquidity and transparent capacity allocation for TSOs and regulators. For investors, the week’s pattern points to assessing generation projects together with grid access and export optionality when evaluating potential value under constrained conditions.
Southeast Europe was described as not yet forming one integrated price zone, but increasingly operating as an interconnected balancing region. Interconnectors are identified as where this relationship becomes visible as imports rise and price spreads persist across markets.
