The pursuit of hydrogen as a key element in the energy strategies of Southeast European nations is gaining momentum. Governments from Greece to Romania, Croatia, and Serbia are formulating hydrogen roadmaps and initiating pilot projects, viewing hydrogen as a pivotal component in the decarbonization of their economies. However, a critical examination reveals that the electricity demands associated with hydrogen production present significant challenges for these countries.
Hydrogen production is inherently an electricity-intensive process, requiring approximately 50–55 kilowatt-hours of electricity to produce one kilogram of hydrogen. This translates into substantial new demands on power generation, particularly concerning the region’s relatively small electricity systems compared to Western Europe. The implications are profound: developing a robust hydrogen industry necessitates extensive regional electricity expansion initiatives.
To contextualize the scale of this challenge, producing one million tonnes of hydrogen annually requires around 50–55 terawatt-hours of electricity. For comparison, Romania generates about 55–60 TWh annually, Greece produces a similar amount, while Croatia’s output is around 15–17 TWh. Serbia’s generation varies between 35–38 TWh. Thus, the electricity needed for hydrogen production alone could equal or exceed the total annual generation of several mid-sized national power systems within the region.
This stark reality underscores why many hydrogen initiatives remain ambitious yet limited to pilot projects. While electrolysers can be deployed quickly, establishing a reliable supply of low-carbon electricity is a lengthy process requiring significant infrastructure development. The expansion of renewable energy sources—particularly wind and solar—will be essential to meet hydrogen production needs. However, these technologies demand considerable land area, grid capacity, and effective balancing mechanisms to address variability in output.
A typical 1 GW electrolyser facility, often referenced in European hydrogen strategies, would generate around 180,000 tonnes of hydrogen per year, consuming approximately 8–9 TWh of electricity annually. To provide this electricity, countries would need either 4–5 GW of solar capacity or about 2.5–3 GW of wind capacity, contingent on local conditions. Currently, most Southeast European nations lack renewable energy portfolios at this scale; wind capacities are typically measured in hundreds rather than thousands of megawatts.
The integration of renewable energy into existing grids poses additional challenges. Many regional electricity networks were designed for traditional thermal generation and now face difficulties accommodating large volumes of variable renewable output. Recent discussions among policymakers have highlighted that current project pipelines for renewables may exceed the ability of existing systems to integrate new generation without enhanced balancing capabilities or storage solutions.
This situation has led to longer connection queues for solar and wind projects as system planners strive to maintain network stability. Electrolysers require a stable supply of electricity to function efficiently; intermittent renewable output complicates this requirement. Operators must either oversize renewable installations or supplement them with grid-supplied electricity during periods when renewable generation is low, both options increasing overall system costs.
The economic viability of hydrogen production hinges largely on electricity pricing and availability. Electricity costs typically constitute the largest portion of green hydrogen production expenses. For instance, if electricity prices are around €30 per megawatt-hour, production costs could be approximately €1.5 per kilogram. Conversely, if prices rise to €60 per megawatt-hour, production costs double, making it difficult for hydrogen to compete with fossil-based alternatives in sectors with tight profit margins.
Southeast Europe’s electricity markets are often subject to price volatility influenced by fossil fuel costs, making it crucial to secure stable and low-cost electricity for hydrogen development. Consequently, many strategies are now targeting regions with superior renewable resources—Greece’s southern areas benefit from high solar irradiation, while Romania’s Black Sea coast exhibits strong wind potential. Croatia’s Adriatic corridor presents opportunities for both wind and solar energy.
However, realizing large-scale renewable clusters capable of supporting hydrogen facilities will require coordinated investments in infrastructure. Transmission networks must evolve to connect remote renewable resources with industrial demand centers effectively. Additionally, cross-border market integration will be necessary to balance supply variability while scaling storage technologies to stabilize renewable output.
The push for hydrogen thus acts as a catalyst for broader transformation within the electricity sector, revealing gaps between current generation capacities and those required for deep industrial decarbonization efforts. The European Union has set ambitious targets for domestic renewable hydrogen production—aiming for 10 million tonnes by 2030, alongside an equal amount in imports—which would necessitate approximately 500–550 TWh of renewable electricity annually, roughly 20 percent of the EU’s total generation.
The implications for Southeast Europe are significant; the region has the potential to emerge as a key supplier of renewable energy or hydrogen to Central European industries if substantial renewable resources are developed. However, achieving this vision will require unprecedented investments across generation, transmission, and storage infrastructures.
Ultimately, while hydrogen projects capture attention due to their potential impact on energy transition narratives, they represent only a fraction of a much larger transformation within the energy landscape. Policymakers must recognize that successful hydrogen initiatives depend not just on technological advancements but fundamentally on the robustness and reliability of the underlying electricity systems that support them.
The path forward hinges on expanding Southeast Europe’s renewable capacity dramatically; without this growth, ambitions surrounding hydrogen will remain constrained by the overarching need for affordable and abundant electricity.
