Southeast European electricity markets saw a sharp recovery in day-ahead prices on Monday after the weekend, with industrial demand returning. Regional power consumption rose by almost 3 GW, while renewable generation fell back from Sunday highs. Most regional benchmarks moved back above €100/MWh, with Hungary again setting the pace across Central and Southeast Europe.
The Hungarian HUPX day-ahead contract settled at €116.19/MWh, up more than €71/MWh from Sunday. Romania’s OPCOM market closed at €115.19/MWh. Croatia reached €111.07/MWh, Slovenia traded at €109.70/MWh, and Bulgaria settled at €104.37/MWh.
Serbia’s SEEPEX remained comparatively lower at €88.14/MWh. Albania closed at just €56.86/MWh, supported by abundant hydro availability.
Demand returns and supply tightens across interconnected SEE
The return of weekday industrial activity was the main driver behind the price rebound. Regional demand increased to 28.5 GW, nearly 3 GW higher than Sunday levels. Total generation declined by around 1.7 GW, tightening the supply-demand balance across the interconnected SEE region.
Hydro output fell by approximately 500 MW day-on-day, while solar generation dropped by nearly 850 MW. Wind output stayed subdued at just 582 MW, providing limited support for the evening peak load period. Nuclear generation rose slightly to 4.1 GW, offsetting part of the renewable decline.
Generation mix and intraday pricing during evening ramp
The regional generation mix reflected continued diversification across Southeast Europe. Hydro remained the largest single source at 5.35 GW, followed by coal at 4.56 GW, solar at 4.58 GW, nuclear at 4.12 GW, and gas-fired generation at 2.98 GW.
The reduced solar and hydro output increased the marginal value of thermal generation during the evening ramp period. Intraday price curves showed a pattern across most exchanges, with solar suppressing midday prices before values accelerated after sunset.
Hungary’s evening peak reached approximately €235/MWh. Similar spikes were recorded across Romania, Croatia, Slovenia and Greece as solar production disappeared and thermal units became increasingly marginal.
Cross-border flows and Serbia’s relative pricing position
Cross-border flows underlined the role of regional interconnection capacity in balancing supply and demand. Romania remained a major exporter toward Hungary, while Slovenia and Croatia continued channeling electricity toward Italy.
Structural import requirements in Italy supported premium pricing there, with commercial flow data showing sustained exports from Slovenia into Italy averaging more than 500 MW. This reinforced the importance of the Adriatic corridor for regional balancing.
The SEEPEX settlement of €88.14/MWh left Serbia trading at discounts exceeding €25/MWh versus Hungary and Romania. Strong domestic thermal and hydro availability limited import requirements, supporting Serbia’s role as both a balancing market and a transit corridor between Central Europe and the Western Balkans.
Hydrology, forward markets, fuel costs, and weather outlook
Hydrological conditions improved, supporting regional fundamentals alongside strengthening seasonal demand . Danube river flows increased to approximately 6,043 cubic metres per second, significantly above recent lows and supportive for hydro generation across Serbia, Romania and downstream Balkan systems.
Forward markets were more cautious than spot trading . Hungarian Week 24 baseload contracts traded around €113/MWh, while equivalent German products were near €107/MWh, implying a premium of roughly €6-7/MWh. The limited forward response indicated expectations for strong renewable output and improving hydro conditions to contain sustained price escalation through June.
Austrian CEGH gas futures remained close to $50/MWh$, while EU carbon allowances traded around $76.9/tCO₂$, extending a downward trend in emissions costs . Lower carbon prices improve coal-fired competitiveness across Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania by reducing marginal production costs for thermal assets.
Weather forecasts pointed to rising temperatures across much of Southeast Europe . Serbia was expected to approach $24°C$, while Greece and Montenegro remained near $26°C$, supporting higher cooling demand and maintaining pressure on regional power systems during afternoon and evening peak periods.
$From a trading perspective$, markets were characterised by strong evening scarcity pricing, widening north-south spreads, and increased reliance on cross-border balancing flows . Improving hydrology and falling carbon prices provided bearish influences, while recovering demand, limited wind output, and continued transmission constraints supported a firmer market structure as summer approached.
