Greece is poised to enhance its significance in the regional gas supply landscape over the next decade, as outlined in a long-term outlook from the national gas transmission operator, DESFA. This report evaluates anticipated gas flows through Greece’s transmission network and liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities from 2026 to 2035, highlighting the country’s evolving role amidst shifting market dynamics.
Since 2022, the natural gas operating environment has become increasingly unpredictable due to geopolitical tensions and energy transition policies. These factors have introduced greater uncertainty, complicating long-term planning for stakeholders in the energy sector.
According to DESFA’s baseline scenario, domestic gas demand in Greece is projected to reach approximately 6 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2026, with a gradual increase to about 7.1 bcm by 2033. This demand is expected to stabilize through 2035. Concurrently, Greece is anticipated to maintain robust export capabilities, with outbound volumes estimated between 1.3 and 3.8 bcm in 2026, rising to between 1.9 and 3.5 bcm towards the conclusion of the forecast period.
Gas-fired power generation is expected to remain a fundamental component of Greece’s energy demand throughout the decade, despite advancements in renewable energy capacity. DESFA attributes this resilience primarily to sustained electricity exports that support the operation of combined-cycle gas turbine plants, aligning with Greece’s National Energy and Climate Plan.
The outlook also foresees growth across various market segments. There will be an increase in consumption through distribution networks as local operators expand gas access into new regions. Additionally, demand from large industrial and commercial consumers connected to high-pressure systems is projected to recover following a significant decline caused by extreme gas prices during 2022 and 2023.
Moreover, DESFA identifies substantial growth potential within the small-scale LNG sector, particularly in truck loading and satellite LNG services. Overall, the forecast indicates that Greece will not only solidify its position as a major gas consumer but also emerge as a critical transit and export hub, effectively connecting LNG imports and regional pipeline flows to markets across southeastern and central Europe amid an evolving energy landscape.
