The Green Tank estimated renewable-energy curtailment in Greece at 2.063 TWh in the first nine months of 2026, increasing the importance of storage and shaped power contracts for financing new photovoltaic investment across Southeast Europe. The volume was 7.8% of potential renewable generation.
Curtailment reached 158.2 GWh in September, and the January-September total was 15.6% higher than in the same period of 2025. Renewable electricity is increasingly produced when demand, exports and storage cannot absorb the output.
The revenue pressure is also reflected in solar capture prices. ACER highlighted that Greek solar power had a capture price of €24.63/MWh in May 2026, compared with an average wholesale price of €88.95/MWh.
An analysis of the first half of 2026 put the average solar capture rate at 44%, down from 61.6% in the first half of 2025 and 71.9% in the first half of 2024. The decline reflects solar cannibalisation: additional photovoltaic plants tend to generate at the same hours as existing capacity, adding output while reducing the price received for each solar megawatt-hour.
High evening prices do not make up for weaker daytime revenues for merchant solar plants unless they can shift electricity to higher-value hours or use a contract that transfers the shape risk. Managing delivery timing is therefore becoming central to photovoltaic project financing.
About 800 MW of storage was connected in Greece by the autumn of 2026. System analysis indicates that batteries are already reducing renewable-energy curtailment and gas use; ACER’s broader analysis of power purchase agreements also found that renewable-plus-storage structures can increase capture rates and provide buyers with a more stable supply profile.
Lower winter irradiation is expected to ease midday oversupply, while also reducing solar generation. Solar output is expected to recover from late in the first quarter of 2027, when pressure on capture prices could strengthen again.
