European gas prices could remain high and volatile through winter 2026 to 2027, with the 4 November assessment’s base scenario putting Dutch TTF at €80 to €100/MWh in Q4 2026 and €85 to €115/MWh in Q1 2027. The assessment also expects diesel to remain tight as disrupted oil flows recover, with outcomes depending on weather, LNG availability and refinery operations.
For Southeast Europe, the base scenario places Balkan Gas Hub prices at €78 to €98/MWh in Q4 2026 and €82 to €112/MWh in Q1 2027. A severe cold spell or renewed LNG interruption could push Dutch TTF to €120 to €150/MWh or higher, while mild weather and stronger LNG arrivals could bring gas prices towards €55 to €75/MWh.
EU gas storage is projected to be about 65% to 72% full at the end of December and 15% to 35% full in March. An exit below 15% would make summer refilling more challenging, while stocks above 35% would reduce procurement pressure and the risk premium on later deliveries.
Oil supply risks keep diesel markets tight
The oil base scenario puts Brent at about $100 to $110 a barrel in Q4 2026 and $90 to $100 a barrel in Q1 2027, assuming partial normalisation of supply. A renewed major disruption could lift Brent above $120 a barrel, while a faster recovery could take it below $80.
Diesel may remain tighter than crude because low stocks and freight constraints can persist beyond the initial production disruption. Southeast European refining margins should stay supported while imported products are expensive, although higher global refinery runs could reduce them in early 2027. Local shortages remain possible if a major regional refinery loses access to crude or suffers an extended outage.
Fuel costs feed into regional power prices
At gas prices of €80 to €100/MWh, efficient combined-cycle plants face fuel costs of roughly €135 to €180/MWh before carbon and other variable costs. Strong hydro and wind output would reduce how often those plants set regional power prices.
The figures are conditional market scenarios, not quoted forward prices. A sustained LNG recovery and mild weather would weaken the gas outlook, while faster refinery recovery and inventory rebuilding would ease diesel pressure; supply disruptions would push the balance in the opposite direction.
