Diesel availability and prices across Southeast Europe depend on regional refinery output and transport routes, with disruptions able to shift supply costs across borders. In Bulgaria, Serbia and neighbouring markets, refinery operating status and access to replacement fuel are consequential.
Burgas is a major diesel source for the eastern Balkans. The refinery has indicated production of roughly 240,000-260,000 tonnes per month, compared with Bulgarian domestic consumption of up to about 190,000 tonnes, normally leaving an exportable surplus.
Other plants play distinct roles in regional supply. Rijeka has higher diesel yield and greater crude flexibility following its delayed-coker investment, while Petrobrazi is running at exceptionally high utilisation and anchors Romanian product supply. Pančevo remains central to Serbia and is exposed to sanctions-linked crude logistics through JANAF.
Greece’s large Mediterranean refining system and ports add another source of supply. Greek refineries can source global crude and export products into the Balkans, helping when inland refinery outages or seasonal demand create shortages. Thessaloniki is strategically important for future product links toward North Macedonia and Serbia.
Supply can be balanced through Adriatic, Black Sea, Aegean, Danube and Central European pipeline routes. Differentials between routes can widen when freight costs, river levels or sanctions constrain a channel; changes in refinery throughput, pipeline access and port availability can also redirect trade. The delivered price of replacement fuel depends on which routes remain open when a local supply gap develops.
The outlook for Q4 2026 is expected to favour regional refiners because imported product remains expensive. The balance is expected to loosen gradually in Q1 2027, although winter demand or a refinery outage could still cause local shortages or sharp basis premiums.
