Greece cleared at an average of approximately €116.50/MWh, with settlement prices ranging from around €25/MWh to €174/MWh. Unlike the previous session, when HEnEx prices reached zero during a solar-heavy period, the latest curve avoided a clearly negative settlement.
The lack of negative prices does not remove the market pressure linked to high solar output. Strong photovoltaic generation continues to depress daytime electricity values. During morning and evening periods, gas-fired plants increasingly set the marginal price.
Cross-border flows through Bulgaria and North Macedonia
When solar generation is strong and domestic prices are relatively low, Greece can export electricity northwards through Bulgaria and North Macedonia. Later in the day, as photovoltaic output declines, those export flows can change direction. The reversal risk increases when Greek gas generation becomes more expensive.
The value and direction of cross-border transmission can therefore shift within a single day. These changes are tied to variations in solar output and the relative cost of gas generation.
Curtailment risk and revenue differentiation for solar projects
Curtailment is becoming a more significant factor for renewable project economics. A solar plant can keep its expected technical annual yield while its commercially saleable output falls. This occurs when the power system cannot absorb all available generation during saturated hours.
For project financing, it becomes important to separate weather-related production losses from grid-driven curtailment and price-driven economic shutdown. Each factor affects revenues differently. Treating them as equivalent risks is not aligned with how revenue impacts differ.
PPA structures adapting to curtailment and low-price conditions
Conventional solar PPAs based on fixed annual volumes can increase imbalance and delivery exposure. This is especially relevant when curtailment, low prices or grid instructions prevent contracted output from being delivered. As a result, new contracts increasingly include hourly shaping and storage integration.
Contract terms are also incorporating floor-price mechanisms alongside explicit allocation of curtailment risk. The commercial value of generation in Greece is therefore increasingly linked to timing and deliverability rather than output volume alone.
