Bulgaria is emerging as Southeast Europe’s key source of power-system flexibility. Its €104/MWh day-ahead average was almost €20/MWh below Hungary’s level, while the fifteen-minute evening peak still approached €199/MWh. The country’s diversified generation mix supports higher solar output absorption and reduces reliance on imports during evening hours.
Generation and demand trends in the first part of 2026
Electricity production totalled approximately 26.9 TWh between 1 January and 9 August, up 7.8% year on year. Consumption increased by 6.8% to around 25.0 TWh, leaving a cumulative electricity surplus of about 1.86 TWh. Hydropower generation rose to roughly 3.4 TWh, compared with 1.81 TWh in the same period of 2025.
Transmission-connected renewable generation also expanded by more than 16%, reaching approximately 2.94 TWh. Even with the growing surplus, the price curve indicates that hourly scarcity remains present in the market.
IBEX price swings during solar peaks and evening ramps
IBEX prices dropped to just €11/MWh during the strongest solar-production period. Prices then climbed to almost €199/MWh during the evening ramp, reflecting a pronounced intraday spread. This pattern links low midday pricing to higher-value periods later in the day.
Batteries expand to capture value from evening scarcity
The intraday spread is supporting demand for battery energy storage participation. Sunotec operates two storage systems at Brusartsi and Byala Slatina, with combined capacity of 200 MW/505 MWh. Market access and optimisation are provided by Slovenian trader GEN-I.
The systems can discharge at high power for approximately two and a half hours, targeting the most expensive segment of the evening ramp . GEN-I also plans expansion across another nine Bulgarian projects totalling 195 MW/782 MWh, which would raise average storage duration towards four hours and extend coverage during longer scarcity periods .
Diverging market incentives for solar output and flexible resources
Bulgaria’s solar buildout is associated with two distinct electricity markets across the day. Solar developers compete to sell into increasingly depressed midday prices, while batteries and flexible thermal generators compete for value during the evening recovery.
For new photovoltaic projects, captured solar revenues may fall below the IBEX baseload average without storage, flexible offtake arrangements or a carefully structured PPA . The existing annual generation surplus does not remove that risk; it changes when electricity has value within the daily price profile.
