European electricity markets moved into a firmer pricing phase in the first half of 2026, with average six-month prices staying above €60/MWh across most major markets. Italy posted the highest average at €127.18/MWh, followed by the United Kingdom at €107.27/MWh. Portugal and Spain were the lowest-priced markets, averaging €48.77/MWh and €49.83/MWh, respectively.
Price changes versus H2 2025 and year-on-year trends
Compared with the second half of 2025, electricity prices increased across most European markets analysed. The Nordic market showed the largest rise, with prices up by 82%, while the United Kingdom increased by 27%. Spain and Portugal saw declines of 28% and 29%, respectively.
The year-on-year comparison also pointed to a broad increase in average prices across most markets. The Nordic region led again, with prices up by 120%. The change was linked to demand shifts, generation patterns, fuel market developments and differences in renewable availability across the region.
Solar and wind output record levels across major markets
Renewable generation continued to influence Europe’s power system during the first half of 2026. Solar photovoltaic output rose year-on-year in all major markets. Spain and France recorded the largest growth rates at 16%, while Germany, Spain, Italy and France reached record half-year solar generation levels.
Wind power production increased across all analysed markets compared with the first half of 2025. Italy recorded the biggest rise at 17%, followed by France and Germany. France, Italy and Portugal achieved new half-year wind generation records.
Demand developments and commodity drivers
Electricity demand strengthened across much of Europe over the same period. Belgium recorded the largest year-on-year increase at 6.1%, while consumption rose in most markets compared with the previous six-month period. Spain was an exception, with lower demand reported.
AleaSoft said the first half of 2026 reflected an interaction between higher renewable penetration, changing demand patterns, fuel market conditions and the growing role of flexibility resources . Energy commodity markets remained a key input into electricity price formation during the period.
Gas, oil and carbon allowance futures
TTF front-month gas futures on ICE averaged €42.94/MWh during H1 2026, the highest six-month average since H2 2023. Lower European gas storage levels and geopolitical tensions, including developments involving the United States and Iran, supported stronger gas market conditions.
Brent crude oil futures for the front month on ICE averaged $87.60 per barrel, reaching their highest level since H1 2023. EU carbon allowance futures for December 2026 on EEX averaged €77.13/t, which was 2.4% lower than in the previous six-month period but still 3.4% above H1 2025 .
