European benchmark gas futures rose above €100/MWh in late October, increasing winter fuel-cost risks for Southeast Europe’s gas-fired power fleet, the Institute of Energy for South-East Europe (IENE) reported.
The Dutch TTF November futures average was €98.91/MWh for the week ended 30 October, up 11.3% from the previous week. The contract reached €100.341/MWh on 28 October and ended that Friday at €103.944/MWh. The late-October peak is not the current forward quotation: the one-month forward level was €92.695/MWh as of 4 November.
European gas storage was 74.62% full as November began, compared with 61.03% in Germany. Low inventories and uncertainty over liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries tightened the market ahead of winter, while competition for cargoes intensified amid Gulf shipping constraints.
Gas-fired electricity output rose 69.52% in Hungary and 13.40% in Greece during the reporting week. Italian thermal production also increased, primarily through gas.
Higher fuel costs expose utilities and industrial consumers to more expensive marginal generation as heating demand rises and renewable output falls. The effect on wholesale electricity prices is not mechanical: generator efficiency, emissions costs, plant availability and bidding conditions also matter. Physical fuel contracts and electricity hedges should be reviewed together.
