In mid-April, energy markets in Europe experienced notable fluctuations as Brent oil futures remained below $100 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical developments and inventory trends. The week began with oil prices climbing to a peak of $99.39 per barrel on April 16, only to experience a significant drop of 9.1% the following day, culminating at a weekly low of $90.38 per barrel on April 17. This marked a decline of 5.1% from the previous week’s closing price and represented the lowest level since early March.
The initial rise in oil prices was attributed to failed diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran. However, expectations for renewed talks and shifting geopolitical dynamics quickly reversed this upward trend. The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, coupled with Iran’s decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, contributed to an improved supply outlook, exerting additional downward pressure on prices. Although declining U.S. crude inventories provided temporary support, broader bearish influences ultimately prevailed.
Meanwhile, the European gas market mirrored this downward trajectory, with TTF Front Month futures peaking at €46.41 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on April 13 before declining steadily throughout the week. By April 17, prices had dropped to €38.77 per MWh, reflecting an 11% decline for the week and marking the lowest level since late February.
This early-week increase in gas prices was driven by heightened geopolitical tensions related to Iranian port blockades and stalled negotiations. However, as diplomatic expectations improved and ceasefire announcements emerged, market sentiment shifted. Contributing factors to the decline included higher seasonal temperatures, reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand from Asia, and an uptick in renewable energy generation across Europe.
In contrast to the trends observed in oil and gas markets, CO₂ emission allowance futures exhibited a positive trajectory during the same period. Prices for the December 2026 contract reached a low of €72.61 per tonne on April 13 before climbing above €74 per tonne for the rest of the week. By April 17, they peaked at €77.48 per tonne, reflecting a 6.4% increase compared to the previous week and representing the highest level since mid-February.
