March 28, 2025
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Europe: Brent oil, TTF gas and CO2 emission allowances see declines in early March 2025 amid market pressures

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In the first week of March, Brent oil futures saw a decrease in prices, following a 2.1% drop on Monday, March 3, from the last session of the previous week. Despite this decline, the futures reached their highest settlement price of the week at $71.62/bbl. Prices continued to decrease until March 5, when they hit their weekly low of $69.30/bbl, the lowest since September 11, 2024. A recovery began after that, but by Friday, March 7, the settlement price was $70.36/bbl, still 3.9% lower than the previous Friday.

The decrease in Brent oil prices during the first week of March was largely influenced by OPEC+ plans to gradually reverse its voluntary production cuts starting in April, and ongoing concerns over the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on global oil demand. However, U.S. efforts to reduce Iranian oil exports helped to support a price recovery towards the end of the week.

For TTF gas futures in the ICE market, prices peaked on Monday, March 3, at €45.21/MWh. Afterward, prices decreased until Thursday, March 6, when they hit their lowest point of the week at €38.24/MWh, the lowest since September 28, 2024. On Friday, March 7, there was a 4.5% increase from the previous day, with the settlement price reaching €39.97/MWh, still 9.8% lower than the previous Friday. Milder temperatures and expectations of less stringent storage targets for the upcoming winter contributed to the price decline. Additionally, some speculative profit-taking following the strong bull run in the past months and the potential return of Russian gas flows through Ukraine due to decreased tensions in the war contributed to the drop.

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For CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market, the price on March 3 reached a weekly high of €71.55/t, but prices remained below €70/t for the rest of the week. The lowest price of the week was recorded on Thursday, March 6, at €67.32/t, the lowest since December 19, 2024. On Friday, March 7, the price rose by 1.9%, settling at €68.63/t, though it was still 3.3% lower than the previous Friday, AleaSoft reports.

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