Electricity trading dynamics in South-East Europe exhibit significant recovery and transformation as January 2026 marks a pivotal shift from the crisis years of 2022-2024. The region’s electricity markets are witnessing an increase in tradable liquidity, with heightened volumes and intensified cross-border flows. This transition indicates a move away from emergency measures towards a more market-driven optimization, reflecting the resilience and adaptability of regional power systems.
In Serbia, the day-ahead market operated by SEEPEX reported average daily traded volumes between 12.9 GWh and 16.5 GWh in early January, with total monthly volumes estimated at 420–450 GWh. This represents a substantial increase compared to January 2025, when regulatory uncertainties hampered exchange participation. The return of robust trading activity underscores a renewed confidence among market participants.
Price behavior during this period illustrates the re-emergence of genuine market dynamics. Day-ahead prices fluctuated between €66.9/MWh on mild days and exceeded €125/MWh during colder spells, yet rising prices did not deter trading volumes. This indicates that generators and large consumers are increasingly willing to engage in the market rather than relying solely on fixed bilateral contracts.
Bulgaria and Romania have emerged as key players in this evolving market landscape. Bulgaria’s structural advantages, including stable nuclear output from Kozloduy and operational lignite plants, allowed it to maintain wholesale prices within a competitive band of €95–115/MWh. This positioned Bulgaria as a reliable exporter to neighboring countries like Serbia, Greece, and North Macedonia during periods of tighter system conditions.
Romania’s diversified generation mix—comprising nuclear, hydro, wind, and gas—has further enhanced its trading capabilities. With day-ahead prices typically ranging from €90 to €120/MWh, Romania has successfully engaged in exports while capitalizing on arbitrage opportunities against higher-priced zones. Its ability to respond flexibly during intraday demand fluctuations has solidified its relevance in regional electricity trading.
The utilization of cross-border capacity has become increasingly critical, with interconnectors linking Greece-Bulgaria, Romania-Hungary, and Serbia-Hungary operating at high rates. Price spreads often exceeded €5–8/MWh, translating into congestion rents that reward participants with secured transmission rights capable of facilitating power movement across borders swiftly.
Professional trading houses have thrived in this environment, leveraging regional portfolios to optimize positions across South-East Europe and Central Europe. Notable international players such as Axpo, MET Group, Statkraft, RWE Supply & Trading, and Engie Trading have been actively involved in various hubs throughout the region.
Regional incumbents also played significant roles; EPS emerged as a key seller during favorable hydro conditions while Serbian hydro operators provided essential intraday flexibility. In Croatia, HEP utilized hydro optimization strategies to stabilize domestic supply while selectively exporting surplus power. Greece’s PPC transitioned towards a more balanced trading profile as it moved from being import-dependent to a more self-sufficient system supported by renewables.
Flexibility has proven to be one of the most monetized attributes in January 2026. Hydro cascades and fast-responding assets captured substantial value as intraday price spreads reached €20–40/MWh between midday oversupply and evening peak demand. Although full 15-minute trading implementation remains incomplete across the region, price behaviors increasingly reflect shorter-interval logic that rewards rapid response capabilities.
From a structural standpoint, January also highlighted the gradual unwinding of crisis-era distortions such as emergency price caps and export restrictions that characterized the previous years. A more pragmatic coexistence of bilateral contracts and exchange trading has re-emerged, enabling industrial consumers to manage exposure through day-ahead markets while generators utilize spot markets for incremental output monetization.
The higher throughput at SEEPEX has improved price discovery and reduced risk premiums associated with bilateral contracts. Clearing days exceeding 15 GWh have established SEEPEX among Europe’s more liquid secondary hubs, enhancing its role as a reference point for both Serbia and the broader Western Balkans.
However, challenges remain for less flexible systems such as North Macedonia and parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which continue to face elevated procurement costs due to their limited ability to export during low-price hours or capitalize on intraday volatility.
For industrial buyers in January 2026, the landscape signals not a return to lower electricity prices but rather an opportunity for optimized trading strategies amidst elevated costs. The liquidity and transparency now available allow for layered procurement approaches instead of locking in full-year exposure at high-risk premiums.
Overall, January 2026 confirms a new equilibrium within South-East Europe’s electricity markets. While power prices remain high, market functionality is restored. Success is increasingly defined by connectivity, flexibility, and sophisticated trading strategies rather than mere installed capacity alone. Export-capable systems with diverse generation mixes are now pivotal in shaping regional outcomes.
