On March 13, 2026, day-ahead electricity prices in Central and Southeast Europe experienced a significant decline, primarily due to increased cross-border imports from the CORE region, stable weather conditions, and enhanced thermal generation that compensated for a dip in renewable energy output. The Hungarian HUPX market continued to serve as the main liquidity hub for power trading in the region, reflecting broader market trends.
Spot prices fell across multiple exchanges compared to the previous day. Hungary’s HUPX recorded a price of €105.96/MWh, down by €28.8/MWh from the prior trading session. Neighboring markets followed suit, with Romania’s OPCOM settling at €93.93/MWh, Bulgaria’s IBEX at €92.28/MWh, Greece’s HENEX at €89.55/MWh, and both Slovenia’s BSP and Croatia’s CROPEX around €91.93/MWh. The Serbian SEEPEX average was noted at €102.08/MWh, maintaining a slight premium over surrounding markets due to constrained cross-border capacity and ongoing domestic thermal generation.
The lowest regional price was recorded in Albania’s ALPEX market at €79.76/MWh, while Italy remained the highest at €146.58/MWh, a reflection of its persistent structural price premium driven by gas-linked generation and transmission limitations between Adriatic markets and the Italian peninsula.
Demand and System Balance
Electricity consumption across Hungary and the SEE region was estimated at approximately 32,917 MW, slightly lower than the previous day’s figures. Stable average temperatures of around 8.6°C limited demand fluctuations, further contributing to softer power prices.
Despite this decline in demand, the region maintained a reliance on imports from the CORE European market. Net power imports averaged -837 MW, with significant inflows from the Austria-Slovakia interconnection corridor delivering about 1,960 MW into the regional grid.
The price spread between Hungary and Germany widened to €57.53/MWh, encouraging cross-border electricity flows from Western Europe into Central Europe and reinforcing downward pressure on regional day-ahead prices.
Generation Mix
Regional electricity generation reached approximately 33,243 MW, with hydro and thermal plants dominating the supply structure. Hydro production accounted for 8,502 MW, benefiting from improved river flows across the Danube basin. Coal-fired generation contributed significantly with 6,984 MW, while gas plants provided about 5,528 MW during peak periods.
Renewable energy output saw a marked decrease compared to earlier days; wind generation fell sharply to 629 MW and solar production decreased to 4,526 MW due to cloudier weather conditions across Central Europe. Nuclear generation remained stable at 5,702 MW from facilities in Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria.
Hydropower constituted approximately 26% of the regional generation mix, followed by coal and gas which together accounted for around 39% of total output.
Fuel and Carbon Markets
The fuel markets exhibited mixed signals regarding forward power pricing. The CEGH Austrian gas hub traded around €51.55/MWh with a daily increase of €1.7/MWh noted. Meanwhile, EU carbon allowances for December 2026 hovered between €70–75/t, slightly lower than the previous week.
Forward power spreads reflected these dynamics; Hungarian forward contracts were quoted at approximately €118/MWh for week 12 and €113/MWh for week 13, indicating expectations of ongoing tightness in the regional market despite recent corrections in day-ahead prices.
Coal futures on the API2 benchmark were trading around $127–128/t for April 2026, supporting continued coal-fired generation in Southeast Europe where carbon pricing remains comparatively lower than within the EU ETS zone.
Cross-Border Flows
Recent commercial flows indicate sustained export patterns from Romania and Hungary towards Serbia and other Western Balkan countries. Additionally, electricity movements from Slovenia and Croatia toward Italy via Alpine interconnections have been observed.
The Romania-Hungary corridor continues to be one of the most active cross-border routes facilitating balancing flows across Central and Eastern Europe. Serbia has also been importing power from Hungary and Bosnia and Herzegovina, underscoring the region’s dependence on neighboring generation during periods of reduced domestic renewable output.
Market News Impacting Power Fundamentals
Several developments have influenced trading sentiment within the region. Serbia confirmed that electricity exports to the EU have effectively ceased since January 2026 due to the EU’s CBAM carbon charge adding approximately €78/MWh to Serbian exports—rendering them less competitive against EU-generated electricity.
Moreover, Serbia has temporarily halted new renewable connection approvals citing concerns about grid stability following a surge in project applications that exceeded integration capacity limits. This decision may delay new renewable capacity additions in the near term but could support regional power prices if demand increases later this year.
In Slovenia, approximately 230 MW of solar capacity was added in 2025, raising its total installed solar fleet to roughly 1,650 MW; however, growth has slowed compared to previous years as support schemes have evolved.
Short-Term Outlook
Looking ahead to upcoming trading sessions, electricity prices across Southeast Europe are expected to be influenced by three primary factors:
First, robust cross-border flows from the CORE market are anticipated as long as the Hungary-Germany price spread remains above €50/MWh, which will maintain downward pressure on Central European prices.
Second, high variability in renewable energy output is expected during early spring; any recovery in wind generation could exert additional downward pressure on day-ahead markets across Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria.
Lastly, regulatory changes are increasingly affecting regional electricity flows; specifically, the collapse of Serbian power exports to the EU due to CBAM may redirect electricity towards intra-Balkan trading routes rather than Western European markets—gradually reshaping power flow dynamics throughout SEE during 2026.
In summary, traders foresee that most Southeast European day-ahead markets will likely operate within a central trading range of €90–110/MWh in the near term with volatility primarily driven by renewable output levels and available cross-border capacity.
