In recent developments within the European energy markets, Brent oil futures have shown significant fluctuations, reflecting the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On March 31, Brent oil futures for the Front Month on the ICE market peaked at $118.35 per barrel, marking the highest price since June 17, 2022. However, this spike was followed by a notable 15% decline, with prices dropping to a weekly low of $101.16 per barrel on April 1. A slight recovery occurred on April 2, bringing prices back up to $109.03 per barrel.
The fluctuations in Brent prices can largely be attributed to concerns over supply disruptions in the Red Sea region, which had initially driven prices higher. However, expectations regarding a potential resolution to the conflict contributed to the sharp price drop observed on April 1. Renewed fears about possible US military actions later in the week supported a recovery in prices.
Similar volatility was observed in TTF gas futures, which reached a maximum settlement price of €54.81 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on March 30. Following this peak, prices fell steadily until they hit a low of €47.51/MWh on April 1, the lowest since March 11. A slight rebound to €50.04/MWh occurred on April 2; however, this figure represented a decrease of 7.6% compared to the previous Friday.
Early-week support for gas prices stemmed from ongoing supply concerns and low storage levels across Europe. Nonetheless, geopolitical factors and forecasts predicting higher temperatures alongside increased renewable energy generation exerted downward pressure on gas prices, contributing to their decline below €50/MWh.
Additionally, CO2 emission allowance futures for December 2026 on the EEX market remained above €70 per ton throughout early April. These futures reached a high of €74.65 per ton on April 1, representing the highest level since February 12. Following a subsequent drop of 4%, prices fell to a weekly minimum of €71.70 per ton on April 2, maintaining proximity to levels recorded in the prior week.
