The Vertical Gas Corridor is approaching a commercial test in 2026/27, when utilisation, actual northbound flows, rules and tariffs will show whether southern gas can become a regular supply route across Southeast Europe. Its performance will depend on commercial access as well as existing infrastructure.
The envisaged route would carry gas entering Greece through LNG terminals or pipelines north through Bulgaria and Romania, then toward Moldova, Ukraine, Hungary and the Western Balkans. Serbia and North Macedonia joining the corridor expands its addressable market, while new interconnectors can add demand for gas arriving from Greece.
Turning that route into a functioning trading corridor requires available capacity products, harmonised balancing rules and predictable tariffs. Transport costs also need to be covered by price spreads between origin and destination markets. The Energy Community has pushed common gas rules across EU and Energy Community jurisdictions and highlighted the need to make existing infrastructure work as supply routes.
Commercial success will be measured by utilisation rather than infrastructure inaugurations. Traders will watch booked capacity, actual flows, tariff changes and whether gas moves against the historical direction. Persistent south-to-north deliveries would indicate a functioning regional gas market, rather than a collection of emergency diversification projects.
Sustained use, competitive tariffs and reliable capacity products will determine whether the corridor lowers procurement costs. Congestion or incompatible network rules could preserve local price premiums despite technical pipeline capacity, while commercially constrained capacity could widen regional basis premiums.
Q4 2026 is expected to test rule harmonisation and utilisation. Q1 2027 should show more clearly whether southern supply can displace higher-cost alternatives during winter peaks.
