Week 25 showed a shift in how thermal generation is contributing to power system needs across Southeast Europe. SEE thermal output increased by 19.4% to 5.31 TWh, while gas-fired generation rose by 32.3%. The increase occurred alongside falling gas prices. This points to dispatch decisions tied to controllable output requirements.
Thermal plants were used to cover the gap created by higher demand, lower hydro availability, and weaker wind generation. With solar penetration rising, the shortfall is concentrated in ramping periods and evening hours. In that context, thermal output is increasingly relevant for balancing needs rather than only for stable year-round supply.
How a thermal flexibility margin monitor would work
A thermal flexibility margin monitor would compare available dispatch from gas, coal and lignite against residual load. The approach is designed to quantify how much flexible capacity the system still requires. It would be used to assess whether storage, demand response, and grid reinforcements are sufficient to take over.
The monitor’s focus would not be on highlighting dependence on thermal generation. Instead, it would measure the remaining need for flexibility before alternative resources scale up. That framing links dispatch availability to system conditions where controllability matters most.
Regional dispatch changes across Italy, Hungary, Croatia and Greece
Italy is identified as the core reference market for the flexibility-margin assessment. Thermal generation there rose by 66.7%, while gas-fired production increased by more than 61%. Hungary and Croatia also raised gas-fired generation during the same period.
Greece used gas-fired generation to compensate for the complete absence of lignite generation. The regional pattern shows different fuel mixes responding to local constraints while still contributing controllable output. These changes align with the broader shift toward flexibility needs during specific hours.
Serbia’s balance and implications for scarcity risk
Serbia requires a separate lens because coal and hydro remain central to system balance. When Serbian coal output weakens, the market can be supported through hydro recovery or imports. However, price exposure rises quickly when neighbouring markets are tight.
The monitor is described as a tool for multiple market participants, including industrial buyers assessing scarcity risk and traders anticipating price spikes. Policymakers would also use it to check whether the energy transition adds enough firm capacity to support renewable growth. Thermal flexibility is characterized as a scarcity-hour product rather than a stable annual-demand driver.
