HomeMarketsSoutheast Europe battery returns depend on model, not spot prices

Southeast Europe battery returns depend on model, not spot prices

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The most valuable market for stored electricity in Southeast Europe depends on the battery business model and revenue after costs, not on average electricity prices or installed capacity alone. That can lead investors, lenders and portfolio owners to favour different markets. The relevant measure is revenue per usable MWh after market-access costs and degradation.

Storage earns revenue from price differences between hours and from system services. A comparison based on average day-ahead prices alone misses the effects of volatility, competition, grid charges, fees and access to balancing services. Investors should assess those factors alongside the value of the energy the battery can actually deliver.

Capacity figures illustrate the different market scales. Hungary had 1,053.4 MW of grid-scale battery capacity listed at 1 October, while Romania had 1,162 MW and 2,312 MWh of storage capacity at the same date. Bulgaria had more than 6.2 GW and 19 GWh by the latest estimates.

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Bulgaria’s large fleet offers scale and sophisticated storage operations, but also creates intense competition for arbitrage. Its mature dispatch experience and large solar assets can suit portfolio owners combining solar and storage. Romania combines a rapidly growing fleet with merchant and balancing opportunities; its non-recourse precedent may also make it more attractive to banks.

Hungary’s storage expansion is supported by market reform and a large solar base. Serbia’s operating fleet remains smaller than those of the other countries discussed, but scarcer flexibility can mean stronger price volatility and wider scarcity margins. Standalone storage projects there carry more regulatory and financing uncertainty.

The preferred market varies by business model: a pure merchant trader may favour a less saturated market, while a portfolio owner may prefer Bulgaria and a bank may favour Romania. Investors should model the same battery configuration in each market using identical technical assumptions, comparing competition, fees, degradation and balancing access before deciding where an asset is worth most.

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