In Week 25, electricity prices rose across Italy, Hungary, Croatia, Romania, and Serbia, while Greece and Bulgaria recorded declines in weekly day-ahead prices. The change was linked to stronger renewable generation, including solar output, alongside sufficient export capacity that supported active balancing of regional electricity flows. This contrasted with the higher-price environment seen in several other Southeast European markets.
The Greek day-ahead market averaged approximately €85.50/MWh, falling by more than 6% week-on-week. Bulgaria averaged around €87.58/MWh, also down by more than 6%. Despite broader summer tightening across parts of the SEE region, both markets traded below the price levels recorded in Croatia, Hungary, Romania, and Italy.
Greece: higher wind and solar output supports net exports
In Greece, variable renewable energy generation increased substantially during the week. Both wind and solar output improved, strengthening the country’s net export position. Gas-fired generation also rose, but the additional renewable production helped limit upward pressure on wholesale electricity prices.
As a result, Greece operated as a competitive lower-price exporter rather than being pulled into the higher-priced conditions influenced by the Italian market. The shift aligned with the week’s broader pattern of solar-driven price relief when daylight production coincides with demand and export opportunities.
Bulgaria: demand rise offset by solar strength and exports
Bulgaria’s weekly outcome was notable because prices fell even as domestic electricity demand increased sharply. Strong solar generation, together with greater export availability, more than offset the additional consumption. Bulgaria expanded exports during the week, reinforcing its role as a swing market in Southeast Europe.
When domestic generation is strong, Bulgaria can moderate pricing pressures across neighboring markets. When generation tightens or demand accelerates further, pricing dynamics can move closer to those in Romania, Serbia, and Greece.
Daylight price suppression and intraday volatility
Solar generation is reshaping how Southeast European electricity markets clear on a short-term basis, without removing volatility. During daylight hours—particularly in Greece and Bulgaria—solar output can reduce prices markedly as installed capacity and solar irradiation levels continue to expand.
The effect is uneven across the day. Solar tends to suppress midday prices more effectively than evening prices, contributing to an intraday market environment where price swings become more pronounced as solar output changes.
Market implications for revenue capture and trading
For investors, the shift requires assumptions beyond annual average pricing. Developers, financiers, and lenders need to assess capture prices, curtailment risk, balancing costs, and the potential value of pairing solar facilities with battery energy storage systems. Output concentrated during periods of depressed daytime prices can lead to lower-than-expected revenues even if annual averages suggest profitability.
For traders, Greece and Bulgaria are becoming more influential for regional price formation and cross-border flows as renewable output rises. Week 25 showed that strong renewable generation can temporarily separate parts of Southeast Europe from higher regional pricing conditions. At the same time, it highlighted that flexibility and energy storage are increasingly important for managing intraday volatility in an evolving SEE market.
