Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe fell sharply for delivery on 11 June, as expanding solar generation, cooler temperatures and improving regional supply balances pushed markets lower. The move also widened the gap between renewable-rich eastern markets and Italy, which continued to trade at a premium.
Day-ahead price moves on 11 June
Serbia saw the largest decline among major exchanges, with SEEPEX falling by €37.4/MWh day on day to €78.37/MWh, the lowest price in the region. Slovenia’s BSP exchange dropped to €94.71/MWh, while Croatia’s CROPEX settled at €96.01/MWh. Montenegro recorded the highest price at €104.74/MWh, and Italy remained at €127.23/MWh.
Hungary’s HUPX and Romania’s OPCOM stayed close to the €100/MWh level even as declines exceeded €24/MWh. The spread between Serbia and Italy approached €49/MWh.
Temperature retreat and system demand impact
The price correction coincided with temperatures easing across much of Central and Southeast Europe. Regional average temperatures fell to 20.4°C, while Serbia recorded one of the sharpest drops, declining from 24.2°C to 18.3°C. Lower cooling demand reduced system stress while renewable output stayed elevated.
Generation mix shifts as solar output rises
Total regional power generation increased to 29.1 GW, up almost 1 GW from the previous day. Hydro output rose by 190 MW, coal generation increased by 316 MW, and gas-fired generation climbed by 317 MW. Solar production remained strong at 6.6 GW, representing approximately 23% of total generation.
Hydro remained the largest single source, accounting for 24% of the generation mix. Solar output also supported a higher share during peak conditions in Romania, where it reached an all-time record.
Narrower import needs amid improved supply balance
A stronger supply balance reduced import requirements across the region. Net regional imports fell to only 70 MW, compared with 235 MW a day earlier. The change reflected domestic renewable generation displacing imported electricity during daylight hours.
Romania sets new solar record; exports rise on peak output
Romania recorded a new all-time high for solar generation at 2,634 MW, surpassing the previous national peak set only days earlier. During peak production, solar accounted for roughly 43% of Romanian generation. That level enabled exports of approximately 1,600 MW into neighboring markets.
Southeast Europe’s cross-border flows and forward pricing
Cross-border flows reflected these conditions, with Romania and Bulgaria remaining major exporters while Hungary, Greece, Croatia and Serbia relied on imports during parts of the day. Forward prices stayed higher than prompt levels, with Hungarian Week 26 contracts trading at €117/MWh. July contracts traded at €121.5/MWh.
The forward complex also reflected commodity support, with carbon allowances strengthening to €76.94/t. Austrian gas rose to €50.67/MWh. The resilience of forward curves indicated traders continued to price weather-related risks, hydro uncertainty and potential summer demand spikes despite current renewable abundance.
Solar’s role in setting daytime prices across multiple markets
The latest trading session showed solar output increasingly setting daytime prices across Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Serbia, limiting thermal generation’s influence during midday hours. As photovoltaic capacity expands and battery projects move toward commercial operation, flexibility needs tied to balancing services and evening peak generation were highlighted by market behavior described in the report.
The resulting pattern included depressed midday prices, strong evening recoveries and widening intraday spreads, alongside growing opportunities for battery storage operators, hydro generators and traders active in arbitrage between renewable-rich Southeast Europe and structurally tighter western European markets.
